Sat 24 Oct15:15Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Toulouse face Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC. Recent form: Toulouse have 2 wins from their last 5, while Estac Troyes have no wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Toulouse win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.53

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.49 – 0.95 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	8.3%	3.9%	1.2%	0.3%
1	13.0%	12.3%	5.9%	1.9%	0.4%
2	9.7%	9.2%	4.4%	1.4%	0.3%
3	4.8%	4.6%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Toulouse winDrawEstac Troyes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Toulouse win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Toulouse 61%Draw 21%Estac Troyes 18%

61%21%18%

61%

Toulouse Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Le Mans. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Lille.

WLe Mans 0-3 ToulouseLigue 1
DMonaco 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 15. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Lens.

LEstac Troyes 1-3 LensLigue 1
LEstac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleLigue 1
LAngers 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LLille 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LEstac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgLigue 1

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Toulouse at 61% to win and Estac Troyes at 18%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Toulouse win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toulouse Win	61%	59%	@ 1.62
Draw	21%	24%	@ 4.00
Estac Troyes Win	18%	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toulouse or Draw at 1.14 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toulouse or Draw	83%	83%	@ 1.14
Estac Troyes or Draw	39%	41%	@ 2.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	77%	62%	@ 1.53
Over 1.5	70%	79%	@ 1.20
Under 2.5	56%	41%	@ 2.30
Over 2.5	44%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 1.5	30%	21%	@ 4.50
Over 3.5	23%	38%	@ 2.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	53%	42%	@ 2.20
BTTS Yes	47%	58%	@ 1.62

📈 How the market moved

Toulouse 59%Draw 23%Estac Troyes 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 62%.

Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?

Our model makes a Toulouse win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes.

What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Toulouse and 0.95 for Estac Troyes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Toulouse and Estac Troyes play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.