FIFA WM 2026: Prognosen, Gruppen & Spielplan
Die FIFA WM 2026 ist die größte der Turniergeschichte — 48 Mannschaften, 12 Gruppen und 104 Spiele in den USA, Kanada und Mexiko vom 11. Juni bis 19. Juli 2026. Unten findest du die vollständige Gruppenauslosung, den kompletten Spielplan und unsere KI-gestützten Prognosen für jedes Spiel, sobald sie verfügbar sind.
Unser Prognosemodell wurde für den internationalen Fußball angepasst: WM-Spiele erhalten eine spezielle Behandlung, die den Buchmacher-Konsens und die jüngste Form der Nationalmannschaften stärker gewichtet als unser Standard-Modell für Klubfußball. Prognosen für einzelne Spiele erscheinen auf dieser Seite ab dem jeweiligen Spieltag und auf unserer Startseite mit täglichen Tipps.
Buchmacher-Favoriten: Wer zahlt am meisten aus?
Unten stehen die aktuellen Außenseiter-Siegquoten der großen Buchmacher, sortiert nach impliziter Wahrscheinlichkeit. Das spiegelt den Marktkonsens wider — nicht unser Modell. Für unsere KI-gestützte Prognose über alle 104 Spiele siehe die Turnierprognose.
Bookmaker consensus on the favourites to lift the trophy on July 19, 2026. Odds shown in decimal format; implied probability calculated from odds (does not account for bookmaker margin).
The bookmakers' outright favourite at 17.4% and ranked #2 in the world. Our model rates them among the strongest in the field, but has them edged by France on penalties in the semi-final — they recover to win the third-place playoff against Argentina for the bronze.
| # | Team | Group | Odds | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
France
|
I | 6.00 | 16.67% | |
| World #1 and second-favourite by the market at 16.7%. Our model is bolder than the bookmakers here: it has Les Bleus going all the way, surviving a penalty semi-final against Spain before beating England 1-0 in the final. The most complete knockout profile in our entire simulation. | |||||
| 3 |
England
|
L | 7.50 | 13.33% | |
| Third-favourite at 13.3% and FIFA #4. Our model is more bullish than the market: England reach the final, knocking out Brazil 1-0 in the quarter-finals and edging Argentina on penalties in the semis, before falling 1-0 to France in the title match. | |||||
| 4 |
Brazil
|
C | 9.00 | 11.11% | |
| Fourth in the betting at 11.1% and a perennial heavyweight. Our model has Brazil reaching the quarter-finals, where they lose 1-0 to England — a strong run that stops just short of the last four. | |||||
| 5 |
Argentina
|
J | 10.00 | 10.00% | |
| The reigning champions sit fifth at 10.0% and FIFA #3. Our model rewards that pedigree: Argentina reach the semi-finals before losing to England, then fall to Spain in the third-place playoff to finish fourth. | |||||
| 6 |
Portugal
|
K | 11.00 | 9.09% | |
| Sixth-favourite at 9.1% with a top-five FIFA ranking. The talent shows: our bracket carries Portugal to the quarter-finals, where their run ends on penalties against Argentina. | |||||
| 7 |
Germany
|
E | 15.00 | 6.67% | |
| 8 |
Netherlands
|
F | 21.00 | 4.76% | |
| 9 |
Norway
|
I | 31.00 | 3.23% | |
| 10 |
Belgium
|
G | 36.00 | 2.78% | |
| 11 |
Colombia
|
K | 41.00 | 2.44% | |
| 12 |
Uruguay
|
H | 51.00 | 1.96% | |
| 13 |
Morocco
|
C | 51.00 | 1.96% | |
| 14 |
Switzerland
|
B | 66.00 | 1.52% | |
| 15 |
Japan
|
F | 66.00 | 1.52% | |
| 16 |
Croatia
|
L | 81.00 | 1.23% | |
Sieh dir die vollständige Turnierprognose an
Neugierig, wie sich das Tableau entwickelt? Unsere KI simuliert alle 104 Spiele — Gruppenphase, K.-o.-Runden, Verlängerung und Elfmeterschießen inklusive —, um den gesamten Turnierausgang vorherzusagen, von der Runde der letzten 32 bis zum Finale.
Torjägerkanone: Quoten für den Torschützenkönig
Die Top-10-Favoriten auf die Torjägerkanone, basierend auf Buchmacherquoten und impliziter Wahrscheinlichkeit. Marktbasiert, nicht modellbasiert.
Bookmaker consensus on the favourites to win the Golden Boot — awarded to the player who scores the most goals during the tournament. Reasoning includes group difficulty, penalty-taking duties, and squad role.
Won the 2022 Golden Boot with 8 goals, including a hat-trick in the final. France's first-choice striker and primary penalty taker, with a favourable Group I path (Iraq and Senegal offer goal opportunities) and the squad to make a deep run. Speed, finishing and tournament pedigree all align.
| # | Player | Team | Odds | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Harry Kane Forward |
England
|
8.00 | 12.50% | |
| 2018 Golden Boot winner with 6 goals and England's all-time leading scorer. Primary penalty taker and the focal point of Tuchel's attack. Group L (Croatia, Ghana, Panama) is winnable, and England are genuine contenders to reach the latter stages. The risk: Bukayo Saka and Cole Palmer increasingly share creative load. | |||||
| 3 | Lionel Messi Forward |
Argentina
|
13.00 | 7.69% | |
| Almost certainly his final World Cup, but still capable of decisive moments. Argentina's Group J (Algeria, Austria, Jordan) is a soft landing that should yield goals. The volume question remains — Messi at 38 will likely manage minutes — but quality on the biggest stage has never been an issue. | |||||
| 4 | Erling Haaland Forward |
Norway
|
15.00 | 6.67% | |
| Norway's all-time leading scorer with 55 goals in 48 caps, averaging better than a goal per game internationally. The catch: Group I with France and Senegal makes deep progression uncertain. If Norway escape the group, Haaland's club-level scoring rate makes him capable of erupting against any opposition. | |||||
| 5 | Lamine Yamal Winger |
Spain
|
19.00 | 5.26% | |
| Spain's 18-year-old phenom, Ballon d'Or runner-up and central to Spain's attacking machine. Group H with Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia offers high-scoring potential. Not Spain's primary penalty taker — slight handicap for volume — but pace, creativity and unbroken upward trajectory make him the value pick of the market. | |||||
| 6 | Mikel Oyarzabal Forward |
Spain
|
19.00 | 5.26% | |
| Scored the Euro 2024 final winner and Spain's most reliable centre-forward when Álvaro Morata isn't selected. Same favourable Group H draw as Yamal. Penalty duties give him a volume advantage some of the other contenders lack. Spain's deep run will lift any of their attackers into Golden Boot contention. | |||||
| 7 | Cristiano Ronaldo Forward |
Portugal
|
21.00 | 4.76% | |
| 8 | Vinícius Júnior Forward |
Brazil
|
23.00 | 4.35% | |
| 9 | Lautaro Martínez Forward |
Argentina
|
26.00 | 3.85% | |
| 10 | Ousmane Dembélé Winger |
France
|
29.00 | 3.45% | |
Die 12 Gruppen
Die besten 2 Teams jeder Gruppe sowie die 8 besten Gruppendritten ziehen in die K.-o.-Phase ein (Runde der letzten 32).
Group A
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Mexico
|
| 2 |
South Africa
|
| 3 |
South Korea
|
| 4 |
Czech Republic
|
Group B
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Canada
|
| 2 |
Bosnia & Herzegovina
|
| 3 |
Qatar
|
| 4 |
Switzerland
|
Group C
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Brazil
|
| 2 |
Morocco
|
| 3 |
Haiti
|
| 4 |
Scotland
|
Group D
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
USA
|
| 2 |
Paraguay
|
| 3 |
Australia
|
| 4 |
Türkiye
|
Group E
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Germany
|
| 2 |
Curaçao
|
| 3 |
Ivory Coast
|
| 4 |
Ecuador
|
Group F
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Netherlands
|
| 2 |
Japan
|
| 3 |
Sweden
|
| 4 |
Tunisia
|
Group G
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Belgium
|
| 2 |
Egypt
|
| 3 |
Iran
|
| 4 |
New Zealand
|
Group H
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Spain
|
| 2 |
Cape Verde Islands
|
| 3 |
Saudi Arabia
|
| 4 |
Uruguay
|
Group I
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
France
|
| 2 |
Senegal
|
| 3 |
Iraq
|
| 4 |
Norway
|
Group J
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Argentina
|
| 2 |
Algeria
|
| 3 |
Austria
|
| 4 |
Jordan
|
Group K
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Portugal
|
| 2 |
Congo DR
|
| 3 |
Uzbekistan
|
| 4 |
Colombia
|
Group L
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
England
|
| 2 |
Croatia
|
| 3 |
Ghana
|
| 4 |
Panama
|
● Top-2 advance directly ● 3rd-place playoff contender
Spielplan
Unten sind alle 72 Spiele der Gruppenphase aufgeführt. K.-o.-Spiele erscheinen hier, sobald sie nach der Gruppenphase feststehen. Filtere nach Gruppe, um dich auf deine Lieblingsmannschaft zu konzentrieren.
Thursday 11 June 2026
Mexico
Friday 12 June 2026
South Korea
Canada
Saturday 13 June 2026
USA
Qatar
Brazil
Sunday 14 June 2026
Haiti
Australia
Germany
Netherlands
Ivory Coast
Monday 15 June 2026
Sweden
Spain
Belgium
Saudi Arabia
Tuesday 16 June 2026
Iran
France
Iraq
Wednesday 17 June 2026
Argentina
Austria
Portugal
England
Ghana
Thursday 18 June 2026
Uzbekistan
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Canada
Friday 19 June 2026
Mexico
USA
Scotland
Saturday 20 June 2026
Brazil
Türkiye
Netherlands
Germany
Sunday 21 June 2026
Ecuador
Tunisia
Spain
Belgium
Uruguay
Monday 22 June 2026
New Zealand
Argentina
France
Tuesday 23 June 2026
Norway
Jordan
Portugal
England
Panama
Wednesday 24 June 2026
Colombia
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Switzerland
Morocco
Scotland
Thursday 25 June 2026
South Africa
Czech Republic
Curaçao
Ecuador
Japan
Tunisia
Friday 26 June 2026
Türkiye
Paraguay
Senegal
Norway
Saturday 27 June 2026
Cape Verde Islands
Uruguay
Egypt
New Zealand
Panama
Croatia
Colombia
Congo DR
Sunday 28 June 2026
Algeria
Jordan