Predicciones, grupos y partidos del Mundial FIFA 2026
El Mundial FIFA 2026 es el mayor de la historia del torneo — 48 selecciones, 12 grupos y 104 partidos en Estados Unidos, Canadá y México, del 11 de junio al 19 de julio de 2026. Abajo encontrarás el sorteo completo de grupos, el calendario completo de partidos y nuestras predicciones con IA para cada encuentro a medida que estén disponibles.
Nuestro modelo de predicción se ha ajustado para el fútbol internacional: los partidos del Mundial reciben un tratamiento especial que pondera el consenso de las casas de apuestas y la forma reciente de las selecciones más que nuestro modelo estándar de fútbol de clubes. Las predicciones de los partidos individuales aparecerán en esta página a partir del día de cada encuentro, y en nuestra página de inicio de pronósticos diarios.
Favoritos de las casas: ¿quién paga más?
A continuación están las cuotas actuales de ganador absoluto de las principales casas de apuestas, ordenadas por probabilidad implícita. Esto refleja el consenso del mercado, no nuestro modelo. Para nuestra predicción con IA de los 104 partidos, consulta el pronóstico del torneo.
Bookmaker consensus on the favourites to lift the trophy on July 19, 2026. Odds shown in decimal format; implied probability calculated from odds (does not account for bookmaker margin).
The bookmakers' outright favourite at 17.4% and ranked #2 in the world. Our model rates them among the strongest in the field, but has them edged by France on penalties in the semi-final — they recover to win the third-place playoff against Argentina for the bronze.
| # | Team | Group | Odds | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
France
|
I | 6.00 | 16.67% | |
| World #1 and second-favourite by the market at 16.7%. Our model is bolder than the bookmakers here: it has Les Bleus going all the way, surviving a penalty semi-final against Spain before beating England 1-0 in the final. The most complete knockout profile in our entire simulation. | |||||
| 3 |
England
|
L | 7.50 | 13.33% | |
| Third-favourite at 13.3% and FIFA #4. Our model is more bullish than the market: England reach the final, knocking out Brazil 1-0 in the quarter-finals and edging Argentina on penalties in the semis, before falling 1-0 to France in the title match. | |||||
| 4 |
Brazil
|
C | 9.00 | 11.11% | |
| Fourth in the betting at 11.1% and a perennial heavyweight. Our model has Brazil reaching the quarter-finals, where they lose 1-0 to England — a strong run that stops just short of the last four. | |||||
| 5 |
Argentina
|
J | 10.00 | 10.00% | |
| The reigning champions sit fifth at 10.0% and FIFA #3. Our model rewards that pedigree: Argentina reach the semi-finals before losing to England, then fall to Spain in the third-place playoff to finish fourth. | |||||
| 6 |
Portugal
|
K | 11.00 | 9.09% | |
| Sixth-favourite at 9.1% with a top-five FIFA ranking. The talent shows: our bracket carries Portugal to the quarter-finals, where their run ends on penalties against Argentina. | |||||
| 7 |
Germany
|
E | 15.00 | 6.67% | |
| 8 |
Netherlands
|
F | 21.00 | 4.76% | |
| 9 |
Norway
|
I | 31.00 | 3.23% | |
| 10 |
Belgium
|
G | 36.00 | 2.78% | |
| 11 |
Colombia
|
K | 41.00 | 2.44% | |
| 12 |
Uruguay
|
H | 51.00 | 1.96% | |
| 13 |
Morocco
|
C | 51.00 | 1.96% | |
| 14 |
Switzerland
|
B | 66.00 | 1.52% | |
| 15 |
Japan
|
F | 66.00 | 1.52% | |
| 16 |
Croatia
|
L | 81.00 | 1.23% | |
Mira el pronóstico completo del torneo
¿Tienes curiosidad por cómo se desarrolla el cuadro? Nuestra IA simula los 104 partidos —fase de grupos, eliminatorias, prórroga y penaltis incluidos— para predecir todo el resultado del torneo, desde los dieciseisavos de final hasta la final.
Bota de Oro: cuotas de máximo goleador
Los 10 favoritos a ganar la Bota de Oro, según las cuotas de las casas y la probabilidad implícita. Basado en el mercado, no en el modelo.
Bookmaker consensus on the favourites to win the Golden Boot — awarded to the player who scores the most goals during the tournament. Reasoning includes group difficulty, penalty-taking duties, and squad role.
Won the 2022 Golden Boot with 8 goals, including a hat-trick in the final. France's first-choice striker and primary penalty taker, with a favourable Group I path (Iraq and Senegal offer goal opportunities) and the squad to make a deep run. Speed, finishing and tournament pedigree all align.
| # | Player | Team | Odds | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Harry Kane Forward |
England
|
8.00 | 12.50% | |
| 2018 Golden Boot winner with 6 goals and England's all-time leading scorer. Primary penalty taker and the focal point of Tuchel's attack. Group L (Croatia, Ghana, Panama) is winnable, and England are genuine contenders to reach the latter stages. The risk: Bukayo Saka and Cole Palmer increasingly share creative load. | |||||
| 3 | Lionel Messi Forward |
Argentina
|
13.00 | 7.69% | |
| Almost certainly his final World Cup, but still capable of decisive moments. Argentina's Group J (Algeria, Austria, Jordan) is a soft landing that should yield goals. The volume question remains — Messi at 38 will likely manage minutes — but quality on the biggest stage has never been an issue. | |||||
| 4 | Erling Haaland Forward |
Norway
|
15.00 | 6.67% | |
| Norway's all-time leading scorer with 55 goals in 48 caps, averaging better than a goal per game internationally. The catch: Group I with France and Senegal makes deep progression uncertain. If Norway escape the group, Haaland's club-level scoring rate makes him capable of erupting against any opposition. | |||||
| 5 | Lamine Yamal Winger |
Spain
|
19.00 | 5.26% | |
| Spain's 18-year-old phenom, Ballon d'Or runner-up and central to Spain's attacking machine. Group H with Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia offers high-scoring potential. Not Spain's primary penalty taker — slight handicap for volume — but pace, creativity and unbroken upward trajectory make him the value pick of the market. | |||||
| 6 | Mikel Oyarzabal Forward |
Spain
|
19.00 | 5.26% | |
| Scored the Euro 2024 final winner and Spain's most reliable centre-forward when Álvaro Morata isn't selected. Same favourable Group H draw as Yamal. Penalty duties give him a volume advantage some of the other contenders lack. Spain's deep run will lift any of their attackers into Golden Boot contention. | |||||
| 7 | Cristiano Ronaldo Forward |
Portugal
|
21.00 | 4.76% | |
| 8 | Vinícius Júnior Forward |
Brazil
|
23.00 | 4.35% | |
| 9 | Lautaro Martínez Forward |
Argentina
|
26.00 | 3.85% | |
| 10 | Ousmane Dembélé Winger |
France
|
29.00 | 3.45% | |
Los 12 grupos
Los 2 primeros de cada grupo, más las 8 mejores terceras posiciones, avanzan a la fase eliminatoria (dieciseisavos de final).
Group A
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Mexico
|
| 2 |
South Africa
|
| 3 |
South Korea
|
| 4 |
Czech Republic
|
Group B
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Canada
|
| 2 |
Bosnia & Herzegovina
|
| 3 |
Qatar
|
| 4 |
Switzerland
|
Group C
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Brazil
|
| 2 |
Morocco
|
| 3 |
Haiti
|
| 4 |
Scotland
|
Group D
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
USA
|
| 2 |
Paraguay
|
| 3 |
Australia
|
| 4 |
Türkiye
|
Group E
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Germany
|
| 2 |
Curaçao
|
| 3 |
Ivory Coast
|
| 4 |
Ecuador
|
Group F
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Netherlands
|
| 2 |
Japan
|
| 3 |
Sweden
|
| 4 |
Tunisia
|
Group G
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Belgium
|
| 2 |
Egypt
|
| 3 |
Iran
|
| 4 |
New Zealand
|
Group H
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Spain
|
| 2 |
Cape Verde Islands
|
| 3 |
Saudi Arabia
|
| 4 |
Uruguay
|
Group I
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
France
|
| 2 |
Senegal
|
| 3 |
Iraq
|
| 4 |
Norway
|
Group J
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Argentina
|
| 2 |
Algeria
|
| 3 |
Austria
|
| 4 |
Jordan
|
Group K
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
Portugal
|
| 2 |
Congo DR
|
| 3 |
Uzbekistan
|
| 4 |
Colombia
|
Group L
| # | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |
England
|
| 2 |
Croatia
|
| 3 |
Ghana
|
| 4 |
Panama
|
● Top-2 advance directly ● 3rd-place playoff contender
Calendario de partidos
Abajo se listan los 72 partidos de la fase de grupos. Los partidos de eliminatorias aparecerán aquí una vez confirmados tras la fase de grupos. Filtra por grupo para centrarte en tu selección favorita.
Thursday 11 June 2026
Mexico
Friday 12 June 2026
South Korea
Canada
Saturday 13 June 2026
USA
Qatar
Brazil
Sunday 14 June 2026
Haiti
Australia
Germany
Netherlands
Ivory Coast
Monday 15 June 2026
Sweden
Spain
Belgium
Saudi Arabia
Tuesday 16 June 2026
Iran
France
Iraq
Wednesday 17 June 2026
Argentina
Austria
Portugal
England
Ghana
Thursday 18 June 2026
Uzbekistan
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Canada
Friday 19 June 2026
Mexico
USA
Scotland
Saturday 20 June 2026
Brazil
Türkiye
Netherlands
Germany
Sunday 21 June 2026
Ecuador
Tunisia
Spain
Belgium
Uruguay
Monday 22 June 2026
New Zealand
Argentina
France
Tuesday 23 June 2026
Norway
Jordan
Portugal
England
Panama
Wednesday 24 June 2026
Colombia
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Switzerland
Morocco
Scotland
Thursday 25 June 2026
South Africa
Czech Republic
Curaçao
Ecuador
Japan
Tunisia
Friday 26 June 2026
Türkiye
Paraguay
Senegal
Norway
Saturday 27 June 2026
Cape Verde Islands
Uruguay
Egypt
New Zealand
Panama
Croatia
Colombia
Congo DR
Sunday 28 June 2026
Algeria
Jordan