Spartak Moscow

Wed 16 Sep1-0Finished

Fakel

⚽ Premier League

Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel in the Premier League. Kick-off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Spartak Moscow 1-0 Fakel

Spartak Moscow vs Fakel finished 1-0. Spartak Moscow won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.70, did not land.

Spartak Moscow face Fakel in the Premier League, kicking off Wednesday 16 September 2026, 15:30 UTC. Recent form: Spartak Moscow have 2 wins from their last 5, while Fakel have 0 wins from their last 5. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.71

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.68 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.7%	2.5%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
1	7.2%	6.7%	3.1%	1.0%	0.2%
2	9.7%	9.0%	4.2%	1.3%	0.3%
3	8.7%	8.1%	3.8%	1.2%	0.3%
4	5.8%	5.4%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-0

Spartak Moscow winDrawFakel win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.71, the selection our model is most confident in at 70%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

70%

Over 2.5 goals

📈 Recent form

Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to FC Rostov. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Dynamo.

WSpartak Moscow 1-0 FakelPremier League
WSpartak Moscow 3-0 FC RostovPremier League
LDynamo 2-1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
WSpartak Moscow 3-1 Rodina MoskvaCup
DSpartak Moscow 1-1 FC OrenburgPremier League

Fakel

Fakel come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Spartak Moscow.

LSpartak Moscow 1-0 FakelPremier League
DFakel 2-2 BaltikaPremier League
LFC Rostov 3-1 FakelPremier League
DFakel 1-1 FC KrasnodarCup
LFakel 0-1 ZenitPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Spartak Moscow

R. LitvinovNot in squad
C. MartinsNot in squad
C. WoohSuspended (cards)
D. ZorinAchilles Tendon Injury

Fakel

No absentees reported.

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	88%	78%	@ 1.23
Over 2.5	70%	56%	@ 1.71
Under 3.5	51%	65%	@ 1.46
Over 3.5	49%	35%	@ 2.77
Under 2.5	30%	44%	@ 2.18
Under 1.5	12%	22%	@ 4.30

📈 How the market moved

Spartak Moscow 71%Draw 18%Fakel 11%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?

Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.71, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 56%.

What is the predicted score for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.68 for Spartak Moscow and 0.93 for Fakel. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Spartak Moscow and Fakel play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 16 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.