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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Cruzeiro vs São Paulo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Thursday 08 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Cruzeiro face São Paulo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Thursday 08 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Cruzeiro have 3 wins from their last 5, while São Paulo have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Cruzeiro won 1, São Paulo won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.51 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	8.1%	3.8%	1.2%	0.3%
1	13.2%	12.2%	5.7%	1.8%	0.4%
2	9.9%	9.2%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	5.0%	4.7%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.9%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Cruzeiro winDrawSão Paulo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Cruzeiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Cruzeiro 47%Draw 26%São Paulo 26%

47%26%26%

47%

Cruzeiro Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Cruzeiro and São Paulo. Wins shown from Cruzeiro’s perspective: Cruzeiro 1 · São Paulo 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-04	São Paulo	4 – 1	Cruzeiro	L
2024-09-15	Cruzeiro	0 – 1	São Paulo	L
2024-06-02	São Paulo	2 – 0	Cruzeiro	L
2023-11-02	São Paulo	1 – 0	Cruzeiro	L
2023-06-25	Cruzeiro	1 – 0	São Paulo	W

📈 Recent form

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Santos.

WVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
LSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
LVasco da Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A

São Paulo

São Paulo come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santos.

LSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
WSão Paulo 1-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
DSão Paulo 1-1 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
LBoca Juniors 1-0 São PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Cruzeiro

Fabricio BrunoNot in squad
Gabriel PecBroken Leg
L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
K. ArroyoNot in squad
KenjiAnkle Injury
N. VillarrealAnkle Injury

São Paulo

N. BosshardtNot in squad
ButaKnee Injury
D. DuarteKnee Injury
Iago BorduchiNot in squad
Lucas MouraAchilles Tendon Injury
LucianoNot in squad
RafaelNot in squad
Lucca MarquesJaw injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Cruzeiro at 47% to win and São Paulo at 26%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Cruzeiro Win	47%	55%	@ 1.73
São Paulo Win	26%	20%	@ 4.75
Draw	26%	26%	@ 3.70

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.18 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Cruzeiro or Draw	73%	80%	@ 1.18
São Paulo or Draw	52%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	77%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	70%	73%	@ 1.30
Under 2.5	56%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	44%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	30%	27%	@ 3.50
Over 3.5	23%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS Yes	48%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Cruzeiro 53%Draw 26%São Paulo 21%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	49%
Dixon-Coles	Home	51%
GradientBoosting	Home	46%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.54 for the home side, 1.09 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo.

What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.51 for Cruzeiro and 0.93 for São Paulo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Cruzeiro and São Paulo play?

Kick-off is Thursday 08 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.