Thu 8 Oct22:30Upcoming

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Santos vs Flamengo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Thursday 08 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Santos face Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Thursday 08 October 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Santos have 4 wins from their last 5, while Flamengo have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Santos won 1, Flamengo won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.3-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Flamengo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

63%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.27 – 1.82 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	8.3%	7.5%	4.6%	2.1%
1	5.8%	10.5%	9.6%	5.8%	2.6%
2	3.7%	6.7%	6.1%	3.7%	1.7%
3	1.6%	2.8%	2.6%	1.6%	0.7%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Santos winDrawFlamengo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Santos vs Flamengo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 63% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Santos 23%Draw 27%Flamengo 50%

23%27%50%

50%

Flamengo Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Santos and Flamengo. Wins shown from Santos’s perspective: Santos 1 · Flamengo 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-05	Flamengo	3 – 1	Santos	L
2023-11-01	Flamengo	1 – 2	Santos	W
2023-06-25	Santos	2 – 3	Flamengo	L

📈 Recent form

Santos

Santos come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-4 at Atlético Mineiro.

WSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana

Flamengo

Flamengo come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Independiente del Valle. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFlamengo 2-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
DFlamengo 1-1 Independiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFlamengo 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
WIndependiente del Valle 0-2 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
WRemo 0-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Santos

Gabriel BrazaoShoulder Injury
NeymarThigh Injury
Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
Arthur MeloInjury

Flamengo

Evertton AraujoThigh Injury
Ayrton LucasThigh Injury
G. de ArrascaetaWrist Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Santos at 23% to win and Flamengo at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo Win	50%	53%	@ 1.80
Draw	27%	26%	@ 3.60
Santos Win	23%	21%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Flamengo or Draw at 1.18 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo or Draw	76%	79%	@ 1.18
Santos or Draw	49%	47%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	63%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	60%	54%	@ 1.75
Under 2.5	40%	46%	@ 2.05
Over 3.5	37%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	19%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	39%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Santos 22%Draw 26%Flamengo 52%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	50%
Dixon-Coles	Away	50%
GradientBoosting	Away	50%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.03 for the home side, 1.63 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santos vs Flamengo?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 63% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Santos vs Flamengo?

Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.8 scoreline for Santos vs Flamengo.

What is the predicted score for Santos vs Flamengo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Santos and 1.82 for Flamengo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Santos and Flamengo play?

Kick-off is Thursday 08 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.