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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Palmeiras vs Bahia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Palmeiras vs Bahia in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Friday 09 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Palmeiras face Bahia in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Friday 09 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Palmeiras have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bahia have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 4, Bahia won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.8-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Palmeiras vs Bahia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.50

71%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.80 – 0.93 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	6.1%	2.8%	0.9%	0.2%
1	11.7%	10.9%	5.1%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.6%	9.8%	4.6%	1.4%	0.3%
3	6.3%	5.9%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.9%	2.7%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Palmeiras winDrawBahia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Bahia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Palmeiras 64%Draw 21%Bahia 15%

64%21%15%

64%

Palmeiras Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Palmeiras and Bahia. Wins shown from Palmeiras’s perspective: Palmeiras 4 · Bahia 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-05	Bahia	1 – 2	Palmeiras	W
2024-11-20	Bahia	1 – 2	Palmeiras	W
2024-07-07	Palmeiras	2 – 0	Bahia	W
2023-10-28	Palmeiras	1 – 0	Bahia	W
2023-06-22	Bahia	1 – 0	Palmeiras	L

📈 Recent form

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to São Paulo. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at LDU de Quito.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LLDU de Quito 3-2 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
WPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 1-0 LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A

Bahia

Bahia come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Athletico Paranaense.

LAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
WBahia 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A
WRB Bragantino 2-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
WBahia 3-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
WVitória 0-2 BahiaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Palmeiras

JefteKnee Injury
PaulinhoMuscle Injury

Bahia

Leo VieiraKnee Injury
Michel AraujoHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Palmeiras at 64% to win and Bahia at 15%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras Win	64%	61%	@ 1.55
Draw	21%	23%	@ 4.10
Bahia Win	15%	16%	@ 6.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.12 (85% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras or Draw	85%	84%	@ 1.12
Bahia or Draw	35%	39%	@ 2.38

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	79%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	71%	64%	@ 1.50
Over 2.5	51%	56%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	49%	44%	@ 2.15
Over 3.5	29%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	24%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS No	49%	47%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Palmeiras 61%Draw 23%Bahia 17%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.

Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.8-0.9 scoreline for Palmeiras vs Bahia.

What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.80 for Palmeiras and 0.93 for Bahia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Palmeiras and Bahia play?

Kick-off is Friday 09 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.