Sun 11 Oct22:30Upcoming

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Bahia vs Mirassol Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bahia vs Mirassol in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Bahia face Mirassol in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Bahia have 4 wins from their last 5, while Mirassol have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.8-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bahia vs Mirassol with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

65%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.84 – 1.13 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.1%	5.8%	3.3%	1.2%	0.3%
1	9.4%	10.7%	6.0%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.7%	9.8%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	5.3%	6.0%	3.4%	1.3%	0.4%
4	2.5%	2.8%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Bahia winDrawMirassol win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bahia vs Mirassol comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 65% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bahia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Bahia 46%Draw 28%Mirassol 25%

46%28%25%

46%

Bahia Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Bahia

Bahia come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Athletico Paranaense.

LAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
WBahia 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A
WRB Bragantino 2-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
WBahia 3-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
WVitória 0-2 BahiaBrazilian Série A

Mirassol

Mirassol come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Botafogo. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Flamengo.

WMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 2-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 1-1 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bahia at 46% to win and Mirassol at 25%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bahia Win	46%	56%	@ 1.67
Draw	28%	25%	@ 3.75
Mirassol Win	25%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bahia or Draw at 1.18 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bahia or Draw	73%	80%	@ 1.18
Mirassol or Draw	52%	44%	@ 2.15

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	65%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	57%	55%	@ 1.70
Under 2.5	43%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	35%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	20%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	43%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 How the market moved

Bahia 56%Draw 25%Mirassol 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bahia vs Mirassol?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 65% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Mirassol?

Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline for Bahia vs Mirassol.

What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Mirassol?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.84 for Bahia and 1.13 for Mirassol. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bahia and Mirassol play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.