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⚽ Major League Soccer

Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 15 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Nashville SC face Sporting Kansas City in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Thursday 15 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Nashville SC have 2 wins from their last 5, while Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Nashville SC win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 2.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 73%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.41 – 1.08 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.1%	3.3%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
1	7.4%	7.9%	4.3%	1.5%	0.4%
2	8.9%	9.6%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%
3	7.1%	7.7%	4.1%	1.5%	0.4%
4	4.3%	4.6%	2.5%	0.9%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-1

Nashville SC winDrawSporting Kansas City win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Nashville SC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Nashville SC 54%Draw 27%Sporting Kansas City 20%

54%27%20%

54%

Nashville SC Win

68%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Nashville SC

Nashville SC come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Austin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Toronto FC.

WAustin 1-4 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
WNashville SC 2-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
WNashville SC 3-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
DInter Miami 2-2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
LToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer

Sporting Kansas City

Sporting Kansas City come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Houston Dynamo. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Seattle Sounders.

DSporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
LSeattle Sounders 2-1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
WHouston Dynamo 0-2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
LSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
WSporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Nashville SC

No absentees reported.

Sporting Kansas City

O. BlorianChest Injury
CapitaHamstring Injury
J. DavisInjury
Diego BorgesGroin Injury
M. MosqueraHamstring Injury
O. WolffMuscle Injury
L. JohnsenHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Nashville SC at 54% to win and Sporting Kansas City at 20%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Nashville SC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Nashville SC Win	54%	75%	@ 1.25
Draw	27%	16%	@ 6.00
Sporting Kansas City Win	20%	10%	@ 9.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Nashville SC or Draw at 1.07 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Nashville SC or Draw	79%	90%	@ 1.07
Sporting Kansas City or Draw	45%	25%	@ 3.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	88%	@ 1.08
Over 2.5	68%	73%	@ 1.30
Under 3.5	54%	46%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	46%	54%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	32%	27%	@ 3.50
Under 1.5	14%	12%	@ 8.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	41%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Nashville SC 76%Draw 15%Sporting Kansas City 10%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?

Our pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?

Our model makes a Nashville SC win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 2.4-1.1 scoreline for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City.

What is the predicted score for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.41 for Nashville SC and 1.08 for Sporting Kansas City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City play?

Kick-off is Thursday 15 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.