Sat 17 Oct3-0Finished

⚽ Championship

Birmingham vs QPR Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Birmingham vs QPR in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Birmingham 3-0 QPR

Birmingham vs QPR finished 3-0. Birmingham won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Birmingham face QPR in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Birmingham have 2 wins from their last 5, while QPR have no wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Birmingham won 1, QPR won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Birmingham vs QPR with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

QPR +1.25 @ 1.35

70%Bookmaker odds imply 70%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.30 – 0.96 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.4%	10.0%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%
1	13.6%	13.0%	6.3%	2.0%	0.5%
2	8.8%	8.5%	4.1%	1.3%	0.3%
3	3.8%	3.7%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%
4	1.2%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Birmingham winDrawQPR win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Birmingham vs QPR comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is QPR with a +1.25 start at odds 1.35, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Birmingham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Birmingham 40%Draw 34%QPR 27%

40%34%27%

40%

Birmingham Win

61%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Birmingham and QPR. Wins shown from Birmingham’s perspective: Birmingham 1 · 1 drawn · QPR 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-17	Birmingham	3 – 0	QPR	W
2024-03-29	QPR	2 – 1	Birmingham	L
2023-09-22	Birmingham	0 – 0	QPR	D

📈 Recent form

Birmingham

Birmingham come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Preston. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBirmingham 3-0 QPRChampionship
WBirmingham 4-0 PrestonChampionship
WWest Brom 0-1 BirminghamChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship

QPR

QPR come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Derby. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Birmingham.

LBirmingham 3-0 QPRChampionship
WQPR 4-1 DerbyChampionship
DWest Ham 1-1 QPRChampionship
DQPR 2-2 PrestonChampionship
DWest Brom 1-1 QPRChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Birmingham

M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
Paik Seung-HoHealth problems

QPR

R. BurrellNot in squad
I. ChairMuscle Injury
D. CirkinSuspended (red card)
K. DembeleKnee Injury
T. LampteyNot in squad
A. S. MbengueKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Birmingham at 40% to win and QPR at 27%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham Win	40%	48%	@ 1.95
Draw	34%	27%	@ 3.50
QPR Win	27%	25%	@ 3.70

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Birmingham or Draw at 1.28 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham or Draw	70%	75%	@ 1.28
QPR or Draw	56%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	81%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	66%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	61%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	39%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	34%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	19%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	46%	@ 2.00
BTTS Yes	46%	54%	@ 1.73

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Birmingham or QPR is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
QPR +2	85%	86%	1.11
Birmingham +1.25	83%	86%	1.10
QPR +1.75	82%	79%	1.19
QPR +1.5	79%	74%	@ 1.28
Birmingham +1	79%	86%	1.10
Birmingham +0.75	74%	79%	1.19
QPR +1.25	73%	70%	1.35
Birmingham +0.5	70%	74%	1.28
QPR +1	68%	66%	1.44
Birmingham +0.25	63%	70%	1.35
QPR +0.75	62%	58%	@ 1.64
Birmingham 0	57%	65%	1.47
QPR +0.5	56%	52%	@ 1.86
Birmingham -0.25	50%	55%	1.72
QPR +0.25	50%	45%	@ 2.14
Birmingham -0.5	44%	48%	2.00
QPR 0	43%	35%	@ 2.73
Birmingham -0.75	38%	42%	2.28
QPR -0.25	37%	30%	@ 3.17
Birmingham -1	32%	34%	2.81
QPR -0.5	30%	26%	@ 3.63
Birmingham -1.25	27%	30%	3.18
QPR -0.75	26%	21%	@ 4.50
QPR -1	21%	14%	@ 7.00
Birmingham -1.5	21%	26%	3.60
Birmingham -1.75	18%	21%	4.50
QPR -1.25	17%	14%	@ 7.00
Birmingham -2	15%	14%	6.60

📈 How the market moved

Birmingham 48%Draw 27%QPR 25%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Birmingham vs QPR?

Our pick is QPR with a +1.25 start at odds 1.35, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs QPR?

Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Birmingham vs QPR.

What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs QPR?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Birmingham and 0.96 for QPR. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Birmingham and QPR play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.