World Cup 2026 Forecast: Our Complete Tournament Prediction
Before a ball has been kicked, our model has walked through every match of the FIFA World Cup 2026 — all 104 of them. Below you find our complete tournament prediction: from the 72 group-stage matches, through the new Round of 32, to the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026.
This is one deterministic walk through the bracket. Real World Cups are messy — single upsets cascade through entire brackets. We will leave this prediction frozen during the tournament so you can compare match by match what we got right and where we got fooled. See our main World Cup page for groups, fixtures, odds and live predictions.
Knockout Bracket
Predicted path from Round of 32 to the Final. Click a stage to expand.
Round of 32 (16 matches)
Mexico
2
Scotland
1
Switzerland
1
Austria
1
Brazil
3
Japan
2
USA
2
Norway
1
Germany
2
Türkiye
1
Netherlands
1
Morocco
1
Belgium
2
Czech Republic
1
Spain
3
Algeria
2
France
3
Egypt
2
Argentina
3
Uruguay
2
Portugal
3
Panama
1
England
3
Ivory Coast
2
South Korea
1
Canada
1
Australia
1
Iran
1
Ecuador
1
Senegal
2
Colombia
1
Croatia
1
Round of 16 (8 matches)
Mexico
1
Switzerland
1
Brazil
3
USA
2
Germany
1
Netherlands
1
Belgium
2
Spain
3
France
1
Argentina
1
Portugal
1
England
1
Canada
1
Australia
1
Senegal
1
Croatia
1
Quarter-finals (4 matches)
Switzerland
2
Brazil
3
Netherlands
1
Spain
2
France
1
England
1
Canada
1
Croatia
2
Semi-finals
Brazil
1
Spain
2
France
3
Croatia
2
3rd-place playoff
Brazil
2
Croatia
1
FINAL
Spain
1
France
1
Predicted Group Standings
Our model simulates all 72 group-stage matches. Top 2 from each group qualify directly. 8 best 3rd-placed teams also advance.
Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Mexico
|
3-0-0 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |
South Korea
|
2-0-1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |
Czech Republic
|
1-0-2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 |
South Africa
|
0-0-3 | -4 | 0 |
Group B
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Switzerland
|
3-0-0 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 |
Canada
|
2-0-1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Qatar
|
0-1-2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 |
Bosnia & Herzegovina
|
0-1-2 | -4 | 1 |
Group C
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Brazil
|
3-0-0 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 |
Morocco
|
2-0-1 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 |
Scotland
|
1-0-2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 |
Haiti
|
0-0-3 | -8 | 0 |
Group D
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
USA
|
3-0-0 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 |
Australia
|
1-1-1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 |
Türkiye
|
1-1-1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 |
Paraguay
|
0-0-3 | -3 | 0 |
Group E
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Germany
|
3-0-0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 |
Ecuador
|
2-0-1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Ivory Coast
|
1-0-2 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 |
Curaçao
|
0-0-3 | -6 | 0 |
Group F
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Netherlands
|
3-0-0 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |
Japan
|
2-0-1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |
Tunisia
|
0-1-2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 |
Sweden
|
0-1-2 | -3 | 1 |
Group G
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Belgium
|
3-0-0 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 |
Iran
|
2-0-1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Egypt
|
1-0-2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 |
New Zealand
|
0-0-3 | -7 | 0 |
Group H
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Spain
|
3-0-0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |
Uruguay
|
2-0-1 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 |
Cape Verde Islands
|
0-1-2 | -5 | 1 |
| 4 |
Saudi Arabia
|
0-1-2 | -5 | 1 |
Group I
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
France
|
3-0-0 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 |
Senegal
|
2-0-1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Norway
|
1-0-2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 |
Iraq
|
0-0-3 | -6 | 0 |
Group J
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Argentina
|
3-0-0 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 |
Algeria
|
1-1-1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 |
Austria
|
1-1-1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 |
Jordan
|
0-0-3 | -5 | 0 |
Group K
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Portugal
|
3-0-0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 |
Colombia
|
2-0-1 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 |
Uzbekistan
|
0-1-2 | -4 | 1 |
| 4 |
Congo DR
|
0-1-2 | -5 | 1 |
Group L
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
England
|
3-0-0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |
Croatia
|
2-0-1 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |
Panama
|
1-0-2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 |
Ghana
|
0-0-3 | -7 | 0 |
Group Stage Match Predictions
Our predicted outcome for each of the 72 group-stage matches. Drawn matches shown with equal scores.
Group A
|
Mexico
|
3 – 1 |
South Africa
|
|
Mexico
|
2 – 1 |
South Korea
|
|
South Africa
|
1 – 2 |
South Korea
|
|
South Korea
|
2 – 1 |
Czech Republic
|
|
Czech Republic
|
2 – 1 |
South Africa
|
|
Czech Republic
|
1 – 2 |
Mexico
|
Group B
|
Qatar
|
1 – 3 |
Switzerland
|
|
Canada
|
2 – 1 |
Qatar
|
|
Switzerland
|
2 – 1 |
Canada
|
|
Canada
|
3 – 1 |
Bosnia & Herzegovina
|
|
Switzerland
|
3 – 1 |
Bosnia & Herzegovina
|
|
Bosnia & Herzegovina
|
1 – 1 |
Qatar
|
Group C
|
Brazil
|
2 – 1 |
Morocco
|
|
Haiti
|
1 – 3 |
Scotland
|
|
Brazil
|
4 – 1 |
Haiti
|
|
Scotland
|
1 – 2 |
Morocco
|
|
Morocco
|
4 – 1 |
Haiti
|
|
Scotland
|
2 – 3 |
Brazil
|
Group D
|
USA
|
2 – 1 |
Paraguay
|
|
USA
|
2 – 1 |
Australia
|
|
Paraguay
|
1 – 2 |
Australia
|
|
Australia
|
0 – 0 |
Türkiye
|
|
Türkiye
|
2 – 1 |
Paraguay
|
|
Türkiye
|
1 – 2 |
USA
|
Group E
|
Germany
|
4 – 1 |
Curaçao
|
|
Ivory Coast
|
1 – 2 |
Ecuador
|
|
Ecuador
|
3 – 1 |
Curaçao
|
|
Germany
|
3 – 1 |
Ivory Coast
|
|
Curaçao
|
1 – 2 |
Ivory Coast
|
|
Ecuador
|
1 – 2 |
Germany
|
Group F
|
Netherlands
|
2 – 1 |
Japan
|
|
Tunisia
|
1 – 2 |
Japan
|
|
Tunisia
|
2 – 3 |
Netherlands
|
|
Sweden
|
0 – 0 |
Tunisia
|
|
Netherlands
|
3 – 1 |
Sweden
|
|
Japan
|
2 – 1 |
Sweden
|
Group G
|
Belgium
|
2 – 1 |
Egypt
|
|
Iran
|
3 – 1 |
New Zealand
|
|
Belgium
|
2 – 1 |
Iran
|
|
New Zealand
|
1 – 3 |
Egypt
|
|
Egypt
|
1 – 2 |
Iran
|
|
New Zealand
|
1 – 4 |
Belgium
|
Group H
|
Saudi Arabia
|
1 – 3 |
Uruguay
|
|
Spain
|
4 – 1 |
Cape Verde Islands
|
|
Spain
|
4 – 1 |
Saudi Arabia
|
|
Uruguay
|
3 – 1 |
Cape Verde Islands
|
|
Cape Verde Islands
|
1 – 1 |
Saudi Arabia
|
|
Uruguay
|
2 – 3 |
Spain
|
Group I
|
France
|
3 – 2 |
Senegal
|
|
Norway
|
1 – 2 |
Senegal
|
|
Norway
|
2 – 3 |
France
|
|
Iraq
|
1 – 2 |
Norway
|
|
France
|
4 – 1 |
Iraq
|
|
Senegal
|
3 – 1 |
Iraq
|
Group J
|
Argentina
|
3 – 2 |
Algeria
|
|
Austria
|
2 – 1 |
Jordan
|
|
Argentina
|
3 – 2 |
Austria
|
|
Jordan
|
1 – 2 |
Algeria
|
|
Algeria
|
0 – 0 |
Austria
|
|
Jordan
|
1 – 4 |
Argentina
|
Group K
|
Uzbekistan
|
1 – 3 |
Colombia
|
|
Portugal
|
3 – 1 |
Uzbekistan
|
|
Colombia
|
1 – 2 |
Portugal
|
|
Portugal
|
4 – 1 |
Congo DR
|
|
Colombia
|
3 – 1 |
Congo DR
|
|
Congo DR
|
1 – 1 |
Uzbekistan
|
Group L
|
England
|
2 – 1 |
Croatia
|
|
Ghana
|
1 – 2 |
Panama
|
|
England
|
4 – 1 |
Ghana
|
|
Panama
|
1 – 3 |
Croatia
|
|
Croatia
|
4 – 1 |
Ghana
|
|
Panama
|
1 – 4 |
England
|
Tournament Awards
Statistical leaders across all 104 matches of the tournament. Goals are direct model output. Card totals are projections based on historical team discipline rates × predicted matches.
⚽ Most Goals Scored
| # | Team | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Spain
|
8 | 23 |
| 2 |
France
|
8 | 21 |
| 3 |
Brazil
|
8 | 21 |
| 4 |
Croatia
|
8 | 15 |
| 5 |
England
|
6 | 15 |
🥅 Most Goals Conceded
| # | Team | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
France
|
8 | 13 |
| 2 |
Brazil
|
8 | 13 |
| 3 |
Croatia
|
8 | 12 |
| 4 |
Spain
|
8 | 12 |
| 5 |
Panama
|
4 | 11 |
🟨 Most Disciplined (cards)
| # | Team | M | Y | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Brazil
|
8 | 18.4 | 0.24 |
| 2 |
Croatia
|
8 | 16.0 | 0.24 |
| 3 |
France
|
8 | 13.6 | 0.16 |
| 4 |
Spain
|
8 | 12.8 | 0.16 |
| 5 |
Senegal
|
5 | 12.5 | 0.20 |
✨ Cleanest (4+ matches)
| # | Team | M | Y | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Japan
|
4 | 4.8 | 0.04 |
| 2 |
South Korea
|
4 | 5.2 | 0.04 |
| 3 |
Norway
|
4 | 6.8 | 0.08 |
| 4 |
Austria
|
4 | 7.2 | 0.12 |
| 5 |
Scotland
|
4 | 7.2 | 0.12 |
How this forecast works: Our model combines team-strength scores derived from bookmaker tournament-winner odds (for top-16 favourites) with FIFA April 2026 rankings (for all 48 teams), applied through an Elo-style logit formula with a small home-advantage bonus for host nations USA, Mexico, and Canada. Knockout matches use the same model without home-bonus (neutral venues) and force a winner (no draws — penalties decide).
This is one deterministic walk through the tournament. Real World Cup results are noisy: small upsets cascade through brackets. Locked predictions remain visible after kickoff so we can compare against what actually happens.