World Cup 2026 Simulation: Our Complete Tournament Forecast

Our model has walked through every match of the FIFA World Cup 2026, all 104 of them. Below you find our complete tournament prediction: from the 72 group-stage matches, through the new Round of 32, to the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026.

This is one deterministic walk through the bracket. Real World Cups are messy, single upsets cascade through entire brackets. So we regenerate this forecast every day: as real group-stage results and the latest market odds come in, the model folds them in and rebuilds the bracket around them, sharpening the prediction as the tournament unfolds. See our main World Cup page for groups, fixtures, odds and live predictions, or read who will win the 2026 World Cup for our headline pick. Ready to act on it? See our daily football betting tips for today’s selections.

OUR WORLD CUP 2026 PREDICTION
🏆
Spain
Final: Spain 2 – 1 England
3rd place: France (France 2–1 Argentina)

Knockout Bracket

Predicted path from Round of 32 to the Final. Click a stage to expand.

Round of 32 (16 matches) 28 Jun – 3 Jul 2026
South Africa 0
Canada 1
Canada (62) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against South Africa (38).
· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Germany 1
Paraguay 1
2–2 a.e.t.  ·  Paraguay win 4–3 on penalties
Germany (97) and Paraguay (52) could not be separated in the round of 32, locked at 1-1 after extra time. Paraguay held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.
· Gillette Stadium, Boston
Netherlands 1
Morocco 1
2–2 a.e.t.  ·  Morocco win 3–2 on penalties
Netherlands (93) and Morocco (84) could not be separated in the round of 32, locked at 1-1 after extra time. Morocco held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.
· Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Brazil 2
Japan 1
Brazil (104) edged a tight round of 32 2-1 against Japan (82).
· NRG Stadium, Houston
France 3
Sweden 0
France (108) were comfortably the better side, seeing off Sweden (52) 3-0 in the round of 32.
· MetLife Stadium, New York
Ivory Coast 1
Norway 2
Norway (89) edged a tight round of 32 2-1 against Ivory Coast (50).
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Mexico 2
Ecuador 0
Mexico (80) were comfortably the better side, seeing off Ecuador (70) 2-0 in the round of 32.
· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
England 2
Congo DR 1
England (104) edged a tight round of 32 2-1 against Congo DR (38).
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
USA 2
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0
USA (78) were comfortably the better side, seeing off Bosnia & Herzegovina (35) 2-0 in the round of 32.
· Levi's Stadium, San Francisco
Belgium 3
Senegal 2
After extra time: 6–4
Belgium (86) edged a tight round of 32 3-2 against Senegal (82).
· Lumen Field, Seattle
Portugal 2
Croatia 1
Portugal (99) edged a tight round of 32 2-1 against Croatia (79).
· BMO Field, Toronto
Spain 3
Austria 0
Spain (109) were comfortably the better side, seeing off Austria (68) 3-0 in the round of 32.
· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Switzerland 2
Algeria 0
Switzerland (81) were comfortably the better side, seeing off Algeria (64) 2-0 in the round of 32.
· BC Place, Vancouver
Argentina 3
Cape Verde Islands 2
After extra time: 6–4
Argentina (102) edged a tight round of 32 3-2 against Cape Verde Islands (33).
· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Colombia 1
Ghana 0
Colombia (84) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Ghana (30).
· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Australia 1
Egypt 1
2–2 a.e.t.  ·  Egypt win 4–2 on penalties
Australia (66) and Egypt (64) could not be separated in the round of 32, locked at 1-1 after extra time. Egypt held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Round of 16 (8 matches) 4–7 Jul 2026
Paraguay 0
France 1
France (108) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against Paraguay (52).
· Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Canada 0
Morocco 3
Morocco (84) were comfortably the better side, seeing off Canada (62) 3-0 in the round of 16.
· NRG Stadium, Houston
Brazil 1
Norway 2
Norway (89) edged a tight round of 16 2-1 against Brazil (104).
· MetLife Stadium, New York
Mexico 2
England 3
England (104) edged a tight round of 16 3-2 against Mexico (80).
· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Portugal 0
Spain 1
Spain (109) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against Portugal (99).
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
USA 1
Belgium 4
Belgium (86) were comfortably the better side, seeing off USA (78) 4-1 in the round of 16.
· Lumen Field, Seattle
Argentina 3
Egypt 2
Argentina (102) edged a tight round of 16 3-2 against Egypt (64).
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Switzerland 0
Colombia 0
0–0 a.e.t.  ·  Switzerland win 4–3 on penalties
Switzerland (81) and Colombia (84) could not be separated in the round of 16, locked at 0-0 after extra time. Switzerland held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.
· BC Place, Vancouver
Quarter-finals (4 matches) 9–11 Jul 2026
France 2
Morocco 0
France (108) were comfortably the better side, seeing off Morocco (84) 2-0 in the quarter-final.
· Gillette Stadium, Boston
Spain 2
Belgium 1
Spain (109) edged a tight quarter-final 2-1 against Belgium (86).
· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Norway 1
England 2
England (104) edged a tight quarter-final 2-1 against Norway (89).
· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Argentina 2
Switzerland 1
Argentina (102) edged a tight quarter-final 2-1 against Switzerland (81).
· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Semi-finals 14–15 Jul 2026
France 1
Spain 1
1–1 a.e.t.  ·  Spain win 4–3 on penalties
France (108) and Spain (109) could not be separated in the semi-final, locked at 1-1 after extra time. Spain held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
England 1
Argentina 1
1–1 a.e.t.  ·  England win 4–3 on penalties
England (104) and Argentina (102) could not be separated in the semi-final, locked at 1-1 after extra time. England held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
3rd-place playoff 18 Jul 2026 · Miami
France 2
Argentina 1
France (108) edged a tight third-place playoff 2-1 against Argentina (102).
· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
FINAL 19 Jul 2026 · MetLife Stadium
Spain 2
England 1
In the showpiece, Spain (109) proved too strong for England (104), winning 2-1 to lift the trophy.
· MetLife Stadium, New York

Predicted Group Standings

Our model simulates all 72 group-stage matches. Top 2 from each group qualify directly. 8 best 3rd-placed teams also advance.

Group A

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Mexico 3-0-0 +6 9
2 South Africa 1-1-1 -1 4
3 South Korea 1-0-2 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 0-1-2 -4 1

Group B

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Switzerland 2-1-0 +4 7
2 Canada 1-1-1 +5 4
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1-1 -1 4
4 Qatar 0-1-2 -8 1

Group C

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Brazil 2-1-0 +6 7
2 Morocco 2-1-0 +3 7
3 Scotland 1-0-2 -3 3
4 Haiti 0-0-3 -6 0

Group D

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 USA 2-0-1 +4 6
2 Australia 1-1-1 0 4
3 Paraguay 1-1-1 -2 4
4 Türkiye 1-0-2 -2 3

Group E

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Germany 2-0-1 +6 6
2 Ivory Coast 2-0-1 +2 6
3 Ecuador 1-1-1 0 4
4 Curaçao 0-1-2 -8 1

Group F

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 2-1-0 +6 7
2 Japan 1-2-0 +4 5
3 Sweden 1-1-1 0 4
4 Tunisia 0-0-3 -10 0

Group G

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Belgium 1-2-0 +4 5
2 Egypt 1-2-0 +2 5
3 Iran 0-3-0 0 3
4 New Zealand 0-1-2 -6 1

Group H

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Spain 2-1-0 +5 7
2 Cape Verde Islands 0-3-0 0 3
3 Uruguay 0-2-1 -1 2
4 Saudi Arabia 0-2-1 -4 2

Group I

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 France 3-0-0 +8 9
2 Norway 2-0-1 +1 6
3 Senegal 1-0-2 +2 3
4 Iraq 0-0-3 -11 0

Group J

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Argentina 3-0-0 +7 9
2 Austria 1-1-1 0 4
3 Algeria 1-1-1 -2 4
4 Jordan 0-0-3 -5 0

Group K

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 Colombia 2-1-0 +3 7
2 Portugal 1-2-0 +5 5
3 Congo DR 1-1-1 +1 4
4 Uzbekistan 0-0-3 -9 0

Group L

# Team W-D-L GD Pts
1 England 2-1-0 +4 7
2 Croatia 2-0-1 0 6
3 Ghana 1-1-1 0 4
4 Panama 0-0-3 -4 0

Group Stage Match Predictions

Our predicted outcome for each of the 72 group-stage matches. Drawn matches shown with equal scores.

Group A

Mexico 2 – 0 South Africa
Mexico 1 – 0 South Korea
South Africa 1 – 0 South Korea
South Korea 2 – 1 Czech Republic
Czech Republic 1 – 1 South Africa
Czech Republic 0 – 3 Mexico

Group B

Qatar 1 – 1 Switzerland
Canada 6 – 0 Qatar
Switzerland 2 – 1 Canada
Canada 1 – 1 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Switzerland 4 – 1 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 – 1 Qatar

Group C

Brazil 1 – 1 Morocco
Haiti 0 – 1 Scotland
Brazil 3 – 0 Haiti
Scotland 0 – 1 Morocco
Morocco 4 – 2 Haiti
Scotland 0 – 3 Brazil

Group D

USA 4 – 1 Paraguay
USA 2 – 0 Australia
Paraguay 0 – 0 Australia
Australia 2 – 0 Türkiye
Türkiye 0 – 1 Paraguay
Türkiye 3 – 2 USA

Group E

Germany 7 – 1 Curaçao
Ivory Coast 1 – 0 Ecuador
Ecuador 0 – 0 Curaçao
Germany 2 – 1 Ivory Coast
Curaçao 0 – 2 Ivory Coast
Ecuador 2 – 1 Germany

Group F

Netherlands 2 – 2 Japan
Tunisia 0 – 4 Japan
Tunisia 1 – 3 Netherlands
Sweden 5 – 1 Tunisia
Netherlands 5 – 1 Sweden
Japan 1 – 1 Sweden

Group G

Belgium 1 – 1 Egypt
Iran 2 – 2 New Zealand
Belgium 0 – 0 Iran
New Zealand 1 – 3 Egypt
Egypt 1 – 1 Iran
New Zealand 1 – 5 Belgium

Group H

Saudi Arabia 1 – 1 Uruguay
Spain 0 – 0 Cape Verde Islands
Spain 4 – 0 Saudi Arabia
Uruguay 2 – 2 Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands 0 – 0 Saudi Arabia
Uruguay 0 – 1 Spain

Group I

France 3 – 1 Senegal
Norway 3 – 2 Senegal
Norway 1 – 4 France
Iraq 1 – 4 Norway
France 3 – 0 Iraq
Senegal 5 – 0 Iraq

Group J

Argentina 3 – 0 Algeria
Austria 3 – 1 Jordan
Argentina 2 – 0 Austria
Jordan 1 – 2 Algeria
Algeria 3 – 3 Austria
Jordan 1 – 3 Argentina

Group K

Uzbekistan 1 – 3 Colombia
Portugal 5 – 0 Uzbekistan
Colombia 0 – 0 Portugal
Portugal 1 – 1 Congo DR
Colombia 1 – 0 Congo DR
Congo DR 3 – 1 Uzbekistan

Group L

England 4 – 2 Croatia
Ghana 1 – 0 Panama
England 0 – 0 Ghana
Panama 0 – 1 Croatia
Croatia 2 – 1 Ghana
Panama 0 – 2 England

Tournament Awards

Statistical leaders across all 104 matches of the tournament. Goal and card totals are model projections, expected values across each team's predicted matches (cards weighted by historical discipline rates), so the goal counts run higher than the single most-likely scorelines shown in the bracket above.

⚽ Most Goals Scored

#TeamMGoals
1 France 8 19
2 Argentina 8 18
3 England 8 15
4 Belgium 6 14
5 Spain 8 13

🥅 Most Goals Conceded

#TeamMGoals
1 Iraq 3 12
2 Tunisia 3 12
3 Uzbekistan 3 11
4 Norway 6 11
5 Qatar 3 10

🟨 Most Disciplined (cards)

#TeamMYR
1 Argentina 8 20.0 0.32
2 Morocco 6 16.2 0.24
3 England 8 13.6 0.16
4 France 8 13.6 0.16
5 Paraguay 5 13.0 0.25

✨ Cleanest (4+ matches)

#TeamMYR
1 Japan 4 4.8 0.04
2 Netherlands 4 6.4 0.08
3 Australia 4 6.8 0.08
4 Sweden 4 6.8 0.08
5 Germany 4 7.2 0.08

How this forecast works: Our model combines team-strength scores derived from bookmaker tournament-winner odds (for top-16 favourites) with FIFA April 2026 rankings (for all 48 teams), applied through an Elo-style logit formula with a small home-advantage bonus for host nations USA, Mexico, and Canada. Knockout matches use the same model without home-bonus (neutral venues) and force a winner (no draws, penalties decide).

This is one deterministic walk through the tournament. Real World Cup results are noisy: small upsets cascade through brackets. So we regenerate this forecast daily, folding in real group-stage results and the latest market odds, and rebuild the bracket around them, so the prediction sharpens as the tournament unfolds.

Title Probabilities: 40,000 Simulations

Beyond the single most-likely bracket above, we simulated the entire tournament 40,000 times to estimate how often each team reaches each stage. Spain and France lead the race for the trophy — but the knockout draw keeps it open.

Our model played out the entire tournament 40,000 times, full group stage plus the complete knockout bracket, to estimate how often each team reaches each stage. The Market column shows the bookmaker's implied title probability for comparison (it includes the bookmaker margin, so it sums to more than 100%).

# Team Grp Title Market Final Semi Quarter R16
1 France I
33.3%
16.7% 55.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2 Spain H
21.0%
17.4% 35.8% 71.1% 100.0% 100.0%
3 England L
17.5%
13.3% 36.7% 63.8% 100.0% 100.0%
4 Argentina J
16.9%
10.0% 37.0% 69.7% 100.0% 100.0%
5 Norway I
5.4%
3.2% 16.0% 36.2% 100.0% 100.0%
6 Belgium G
3.1%
2.8% 8.4% 28.9% 100.0% 100.0%
7 Switzerland B
2.8%
1.5% 10.3% 30.3% 100.0% 100.0%
8 Croatia L
0.0%
1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Sweden F
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Brazil C
0.0%
11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
11 Uruguay H
0.0%
2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Colombia K
0.0%
2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
13 Panama L
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Japan F
0.0%
1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Senegal I
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Mexico A
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
17 South Korea A
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 Australia D
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
19 Iran G
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
20 Saudi Arabia H
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
21 Germany E
0.0%
6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
22 Portugal K
0.0%
9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
23 Tunisia F
0.0%
— 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
24 Morocco C
0.0%
2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Simulation last updated: 10 July 2026. Figures are model estimates from 40,000 simulated tournaments, probabilities, not predictions. They reflect our team-strength ratings and will differ from the single most-likely bracket shown in our forecast.