⚽ Championship
Burnley vs Wolves Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs Wolves in the Championship. Kick-off Friday 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Burnley 1-2 Wolves
Burnley vs Wolves finished 1-2. Wolves won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Burnley face Wolves in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Friday 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Burnley have 1 win from their last 5, while Wolves have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Burnley won 1, Wolves won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs Wolves with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Burnley vs Wolves comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is Wolves with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Burnley and Wolves. Wins shown from Burnley’s perspective: Burnley 1 · 2 drawn · Wolves 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Burnley | 1 – 2 | Wolves | L |
| 2026-05-24 | Burnley | 1 – 1 | Wolves | D |
| 2025-10-26 | Wolves | 2 – 3 | Burnley | W |
| 2024-04-02 | Burnley | 1 – 1 | Wolves | D |
| 2023-12-05 | Wolves | 1 – 0 | Burnley | L |
📈 Recent form
Burnley come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Watford. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Wolves.
- LBurnley 1-2 WolvesChampionship
- DBurnley 2-2 CharltonChampionship
- WWatford 0-4 BurnleyChampionship
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
Wolves come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Burnley. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Bolton.
- WBurnley 1-2 WolvesChampionship
- LWolves 1-3 BoltonChampionship
- LMiddlesbrough 1-0 WolvesChampionship
- WWolves 1-0 West BromChampionship
- LEverton 1-0 WolvesLeague Cup
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 17 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. AgyeiMuscle Injury
- A. AhmedhodzicKnock
- Z. AmdouniAnkle Injury
- J. BanelMuscle Injury
- A. BarnesMuscle Injury
- J. BeyerHamstring Injury
- J. CullenKnee Injury
- B. HumphreysMuscle Injury
- A. ArmstrongBack Injury
- R. GomesFoot Injury
- R. JimenezKnee Injury
- B. TraoreInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Burnley at 63% to win and Wolves at 16%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 63% | 33% | @ 2.90 |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Wolves Win | 16% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.57 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or Draw | 84% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Wolves or Draw | 37% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 | 71% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 25% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 47% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Burnley or Wolves is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley +1.75 | 96% | 84% | @ 1.13 |
| Burnley +1.5 | 95% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Burnley +1.25 | 92% | 77% | @ 1.24 |
| Burnley +1 | 90% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| Burnley +0.75 | 87% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Burnley +0.5 | 84% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| Burnley +0.25 | 79% | 53% | @ 1.81 |
| Burnley 0 | 73% | 45% | @ 2.13 |
| Burnley -0.25 | 68% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Burnley -0.5 | 63% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Wolves +1.5 | 62% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Burnley -0.75 | 57% | 27% | @ 3.54 |
| Wolves +1.25 | 56% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Burnley -1 | 50% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Wolves +1 | 50% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Burnley -1.25 | 44% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Wolves +0.75 | 43% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Burnley -1.5 | 38% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Wolves +0.5 | 37% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Wolves +0.25 | 32% | 62% | 1.54 |
| Wolves 0 | 27% | 55% | 1.73 |
| Wolves -0.25 | 21% | 47% | 2.06 |
| Wolves -0.5 | 16% | 41% | 2.34 |
| Wolves -0.75 | 13% | 34% | 2.81 |
| Wolves -1 | 10% | 26% | 3.67 |
| Wolves -1.25 | 8% | 23% | 4.13 |
| Wolves -1.5 | 5% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Wolves -1.75 | 4% | 16% | 5.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Wolves?
Our pick is Wolves with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Wolves?
Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Burnley vs Wolves.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Wolves?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.65 for Burnley and 1.05 for Wolves. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Burnley and Wolves play?
Kick-off is Friday 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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PadovaAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.