⚽ UEFA Champions League
Liverpool vs Villarreal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Liverpool vs Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal
Liverpool vs Villarreal finished 4-3. Liverpool won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Villarreal with a +2 start at 1.30, landed.
Liverpool face Villarreal in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Liverpool win the most likely result at 61%, implying a 2.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Liverpool vs Villarreal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Liverpool vs Villarreal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Villarreal with a +2 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Liverpool win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 74%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points no (60%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Liverpool come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at Lask Linz. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at home to Manchester City.
- WLiverpool 4-3 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- WBrentford 1-2 LiverpoolPremier League
- WLask Linz 3-6 LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
- LLiverpool 0-3 Manchester CityPremier League
- WBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Napoli. Their most recent defeat was 3-4 at Liverpool.
- LLiverpool 4-3 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- DVillarreal 0-0 ElcheLa Liga
- WVillarreal 3-1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- LReal Madrid 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
- WVillarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. BradleyKnee Injury
- F. ChiesaOff the roster
- H. EkitikeAchilles Tendon Injury
- W. EndoOff the roster
- J. FrimpongMuscle Injury
- G. LeoniKnee Injury
- D. SzoboszlaiMuscle Injury
- N. PepeEye injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Liverpool at 74% to win and Villarreal at 9%, with the draw at 17%. Our model makes a Liverpool win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 74% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| Draw | 17% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Villarreal Win | 9% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Liverpool or Draw at 1.14 (90% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool or Draw | 90% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Villarreal or Draw | 26% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 | 50% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 60% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 40% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Liverpool or Villarreal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0.75 | 92% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Liverpool +0.5 | 90% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Liverpool +0.25 | 86% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Liverpool 0 | 82% | – | 1.21 |
| Liverpool -0.25 | 78% | 69% | @ 1.38 |
| Liverpool -0.5 | 74% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Liverpool -0.75 | 68% | 58% | @ 1.65 |
| Liverpool -1 | 62% | 52% | @ 1.85 |
| Villarreal +2 | 60% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Liverpool -1.25 | 56% | 45% | @ 2.12 |
| Villarreal +1.75 | 55% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Liverpool -1.5 | 51% | 41% | @ 2.35 |
| Villarreal +1.5 | 49% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Liverpool -1.75 | 45% | 35% | @ 2.73 |
| Villarreal +1.25 | 44% | 55% | 1.75 |
| Liverpool -2 | 40% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Villarreal +1 | 38% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Villarreal +0.75 | 32% | 42% | 2.24 |
| Villarreal +0.5 | 26% | 38% | 2.49 |
| Villarreal +0.25 | 22% | 31% | 3.08 |
| Villarreal -0.25 | 14% | 20% | 4.80 |
| Villarreal -0.5 | 10% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Villarreal -0.75 | 8% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our main pick is Villarreal with a +2 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our model makes a Liverpool win the most likely result at 74%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline for Liverpool vs Villarreal.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.25 for Liverpool and 1.12 for Villarreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Liverpool and Villarreal play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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