Sat 19 Sep2-3Finished

⚽ Premier League

Tottenham vs Aston Villa Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Tottenham vs Aston Villa in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa

Tottenham vs Aston Villa finished 2-3. Aston Villa won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Aston Villa or Draw at 1.80, landed.

Tottenham face Aston Villa in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Tottenham have 0 wins from their last 4, while Aston Villa have 0 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Tottenham won 2, Aston Villa won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Aston Villa win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.5-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Tottenham vs Aston Villa with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Aston Villa +1.5 @ 1.28

90%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.47 – 1.57 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.8%	7.5%	5.9%	3.1%	1.2%
1	7.0%	11.0%	8.7%	4.5%	1.8%
2	5.2%	8.1%	6.4%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.5%	4.0%	3.1%	1.6%	0.6%
4	0.9%	1.5%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Tottenham winDrawAston Villa win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Tottenham vs Aston Villa comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Aston Villa with a +1.5 start at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 90%. On the match result, the model rates an Aston Villa win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Tottenham 25%Draw 28%Aston Villa 47%

25%28%47%

47%

Aston Villa Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Tottenham and Aston Villa. Wins shown from Tottenham’s perspective: Tottenham 2 · Aston Villa 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	Tottenham	2 – 3	Aston Villa	L
2026-05-03	Aston Villa	1 – 2	Tottenham	W
2025-10-19	Tottenham	1 – 2	Aston Villa	L
2025-05-16	Aston Villa	2 – 0	Tottenham	L
2024-11-03	Tottenham	4 – 1	Aston Villa	W

📈 Recent form

Tottenham

Tottenham come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Aston Villa.

LTottenham 2-3 Aston VillaPremier League
LLiverpool 3-1 TottenhamLeague Cup
DTottenham 0-0 EvertonPremier League
DNottingham Forest 0-0 TottenhamPremier League
LTottenham 0-2 NewcastlePremier League

Aston Villa

Aston Villa come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Coventry. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Nottingham Forest.

WTottenham 2-3 Aston VillaPremier League
WCoventry 1-3 Aston VillaLeague Cup
LAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
WClub Brugge KV 2-3 Aston VillaUEFA Champions League
DHull City 0-0 Aston VillaPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Tottenham

D. KulusevskiKnee Injury
M. MudrykAnkle Injury
W. OdobertKnee Injury
RicharlisonNot in squad
X. SimonsKnee Injury

Aston Villa

AlyssonInjury
M. BizotBack Injury
L. GoretzkaKnee Injury
I. MaatsenAnkle Injury
B. MadjoAnkle Injury
A. OnanaKnee Injury
P. TorresInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Tottenham at 25% to win and Aston Villa at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Aston Villa Win	47%	26%	@ 3.60
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.50
Tottenham Win	25%	47%	@ 2.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Aston Villa or Draw at 1.80 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Aston Villa or Draw	74%	53%	@ 1.80
Tottenham or Draw	52%	74%	@ 1.28

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	64%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	59%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	41%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	36%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	19%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	39%	42%	@ 2.20

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Tottenham or Aston Villa is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Aston Villa +2	94%	86%	@ 1.11
Aston Villa +1.75	92%	79%	@ 1.20
Aston Villa +1.5	90%	74%	@ 1.28
Aston Villa +1.25	86%	71%	@ 1.34
Aston Villa +1	82%	67%	@ 1.43
Aston Villa +0.75	78%	59%	@ 1.62
Aston Villa +0.5	74%	53%	@ 1.84
Tottenham +1.25	69%	86%	1.10
Aston Villa +0.25	67%	45%	@ 2.12
Tottenham +1	63%	86%	1.11
Aston Villa 0	61%	36%	@ 2.67
Tottenham +0.75	58%	79%	1.20
Aston Villa -0.25	55%	30%	@ 3.16
Tottenham +0.5	52%	73%	1.30
Aston Villa -0.5	48%	27%	@ 3.57
Tottenham +0.25	45%	70%	1.36
Aston Villa -0.75	42%	21%	@ 4.40
Tottenham 0	39%	64%	1.49
Aston Villa -1	36%	14%	@ 6.60
Tottenham -0.25	33%	55%	1.75
Aston Villa -1.25	31%	14%	@ 7.00
Tottenham -0.5	26%	47%	2.04
Tottenham -0.75	22%	41%	2.33
Tottenham -1	18%	33%	2.85
Tottenham -1.25	14%	29%	3.32
Tottenham -1.5	10%	26%	3.64
Tottenham -1.75	8%	21%	4.40
Tottenham -2	6%	14%	6.60

📈 How the market moved

Tottenham 47%Draw 27%Aston Villa 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?

Our model's main pick is Aston Villa with a +1.5 start at odds 1.28, with a 90% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?

Our model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline for Tottenham vs Aston Villa.

What is the predicted score for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.47 for Tottenham and 1.57 for Aston Villa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Tottenham and Aston Villa play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.