⚽ Major League Soccer
CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: CF Montreal 3-1 FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati finished 3-1. CF Montreal won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.40, landed.
CF Montreal face FC Cincinnati in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: CF Montreal have no wins from their last 5, while FC Cincinnati have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, CF Montreal won 2, FC Cincinnati won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FC Cincinnati win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.8-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FC Cincinnati win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (71%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati. Wins shown from CF Montreal’s perspective: CF Montreal 2 · 1 drawn · FC Cincinnati 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | CF Montreal | 3 – 1 | FC Cincinnati | W |
| 2024-08-31 | FC Cincinnati | 4 – 1 | CF Montreal | L |
| 2024-04-13 | CF Montreal | 2 – 1 | FC Cincinnati | W |
| 2023-09-20 | CF Montreal | 1 – 1 | FC Cincinnati | D |
| 2023-05-17 | FC Cincinnati | 3 – 0 | CF Montreal | L |
📈 Recent form
CF Montreal come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to FC Cincinnati. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Columbus Crew.
- WCF Montreal 3-1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- LCF Montreal 0-2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- WCF Montreal 2-1 Vancouver WhitecapsCanadian Championship
- LColorado Rapids 1-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- LCF Montreal 1-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
FC Cincinnati come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 17. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at CF Montreal.
- LCF Montreal 3-1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- DHouston Dynamo 2-2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- DFC Cincinnati 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- LPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- LNashville SC 4-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- W. CarmonaInternational duty
- O. EscobarInternational duty
- B. HidalgoGroin Injury
- E. MoralesInternational duty
- D. PereiraLower-Body Injury
- S. PietteSuspended (cards)
- D. SealyInternational duty
- F. AmayaLower-Body Injury
- P. BuchaInternational duty
- K. DenkeyInternational duty
- M. RobinsonInternational duty
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices CF Montreal at 31% to win and FC Cincinnati at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a FC Cincinnati win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati Win | 41% | 40% | @ 2.40 |
| CF Montreal Win | 31% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 46% | @ 2.00 |
| Under 3.5 | 45% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 10% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 71% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 29% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when CF Montreal or FC Cincinnati is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati +1.75 | 89% | 85% | 1.12 |
| FC Cincinnati +1.5 | 87% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| CF Montreal +1.75 | 83% | 83% | 1.15 |
| FC Cincinnati +1.25 | 82% | 79% | 1.20 |
| CF Montreal +1.5 | 80% | 78% | 1.21 |
| FC Cincinnati +1 | 77% | 77% | 1.24 |
| CF Montreal +1.25 | 75% | 76% | 1.24 |
| FC Cincinnati +0.75 | 73% | 70% | 1.36 |
| CF Montreal +1 | 69% | 74% | 1.28 |
| FC Cincinnati +0.5 | 68% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| CF Montreal +0.75 | 64% | 66% | 1.43 |
| FC Cincinnati +0.25 | 62% | 59% | 1.62 |
| CF Montreal +0.5 | 58% | 60% | 1.59 |
| FC Cincinnati 0 | 55% | 52% | @ 1.83 |
| CF Montreal +0.25 | 52% | 55% | 1.74 |
| FC Cincinnati -0.25 | 48% | 45% | @ 2.12 |
| CF Montreal 0 | 45% | 48% | 2.01 |
| FC Cincinnati -0.5 | 42% | 40% | @ 2.40 |
| CF Montreal -0.25 | 38% | 41% | 2.33 |
| FC Cincinnati -0.75 | 36% | 34% | @ 2.81 |
| CF Montreal -0.5 | 32% | 36% | 2.64 |
| FC Cincinnati -1 | 31% | 26% | @ 3.63 |
| CF Montreal -0.75 | 27% | 30% | 3.15 |
| FC Cincinnati -1.25 | 25% | 24% | 3.90 |
| CF Montreal -1 | 23% | 23% | 4.09 |
| FC Cincinnati -1.5 | 20% | 22% | 4.25 |
| CF Montreal -1.25 | 18% | 21% | 4.40 |
| FC Cincinnati -1.75 | 17% | 17% | 5.50 |
| CF Montreal -1.5 | 13% | 20% | 4.65 |
| CF Montreal -1.75 | 11% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 65%.
Who is the favourite for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
Our model makes a FC Cincinnati win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.8-2.1 scoreline for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati.
What is the predicted score for CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.80 for CF Montreal and 2.10 for FC Cincinnati. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati play?
Kick-off is Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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