Sat 26 Sep4-2Finished

⚽ Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Philadelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SC

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC finished 4-2. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Philadelphia Union with a -0.25 handicap at 1.31, landed.

Philadelphia Union face Orlando City SC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Philadelphia Union have 5 wins from their last 5, while Orlando City SC have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 1, Orlando City SC won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 2.2-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Philadelphia Union -0.25 @ 1.31

72%Bookmaker odds imply 76%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.20 – 1.53 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.4%	3.7%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%
1	5.3%	8.1%	6.2%	3.2%	1.2%
2	5.8%	8.9%	6.8%	3.5%	1.3%
3	4.3%	6.5%	5.0%	2.5%	1.0%
4	2.3%	3.6%	2.7%	1.4%	0.5%

Projected score: 2-1

Philadelphia Union winDrawOrlando City SC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Philadelphia Union with a -0.25 handicap at odds 1.31, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (69%).

📊 Key numbers

Philadelphia Union 47%Draw 22%Orlando City SC 30%

47%22%30%

47%

Philadelphia Union Win

72%

Over 2.5 goals

69%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC. Wins shown from Philadelphia Union’s perspective: Philadelphia Union 1 · 1 drawn · Orlando City SC 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-26	Philadelphia Union	4 – 2	Orlando City SC	W
2026-05-13	Orlando City SC	4 – 3	Philadelphia Union	L
2024-10-02	Orlando City SC	2 – 1	Philadelphia Union	L
2024-05-11	Philadelphia Union	2 – 3	Orlando City SC	L
2023-06-21	Orlando City SC	2 – 2	Philadelphia Union	D

📈 Recent form

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 20 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WPhiladelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

Orlando City SC

Orlando City SC come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Toronto FC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at Philadelphia Union.

LPhiladelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
LNew England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
LColumbus Crew 2-1 Orlando City SCUS Open Cup
WOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
WAtlanta United FC 2-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 15 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Philadelphia Union

A. BlakeInternational duty
D. Jean JacquesInternational duty
P. NdingaHamstring Injury
N. PierreInternational duty
C. SullivanInternational duty
F. WestfieldInternational duty

Orlando City SC

D. BrekaloInternational duty
W. CartagenaInternational duty
J. EllisInternational duty
N. MillerKnee Injury
B. OjedaFoot Injury
M. PasalicInternational duty
T. SpicerInternational duty
G. DorseyBack Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Philadelphia Union at 47% to win and Orlando City SC at 30%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Philadelphia Union Win	47%	65%	@ 1.45
Orlando City SC Win	30%	16%	@ 6.00
Draw	22%	19%	@ 5.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.12 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Philadelphia Union or Draw	71%	84%	@ 1.12
Orlando City SC or Draw	54%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	89%	89%	@ 1.07
Over 2.5	72%	74%	@ 1.28
Over 3.5	51%	56%	@ 1.67
Under 3.5	49%	44%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	28%	26%	@ 3.60
Under 1.5	11%	11%	@ 9.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 69%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	69%	66%	@ 1.40
BTTS No	31%	34%	@ 2.75

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Philadelphia Union or Orlando City SC is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Orlando City SC +2	84%	66%	@ 1.44
Orlando City SC +1.75	81%	59%	@ 1.61
Orlando City SC +1.5	77%	54%	@ 1.77
Orlando City SC +1.25	72%	49%	@ 1.98
Philadelphia Union +0.5	71%	83%	1.14
Orlando City SC +1	66%	43%	@ 2.25
Philadelphia Union +0.25	65%	82%	1.16
Orlando City SC +0.75	60%	38%	@ 2.50
Philadelphia Union 0	58%	80%	1.18
Orlando City SC +0.5	54%	34%	@ 2.79
Philadelphia Union -0.25	52%	72%	1.31
Orlando City SC +0.25	48%	28%	@ 3.46
Philadelphia Union -0.5	46%	66%	1.44
Orlando City SC 0	42%	20%	@ 4.65
Philadelphia Union -0.75	40%	62%	1.53
Orlando City SC -0.25	35%	18%	@ 5.25
Philadelphia Union -1	34%	57%	1.66
Orlando City SC -0.5	29%	17%	@ 5.75
Philadelphia Union -1.25	28%	51%	1.87
Philadelphia Union -1.5	23%	46%	2.07
Philadelphia Union -1.75	19%	41%	2.33
Philadelphia Union -2	16%	34%	2.79

📈 How the market moved

Philadelphia Union 65%Draw 18%Orlando City SC 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?

Our main pick is Philadelphia Union with a -0.25 handicap at odds 1.31, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?

Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.5 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC.

What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.20 for Philadelphia Union and 1.53 for Orlando City SC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC play?

Kick-off is Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.