⚽ Major League Soccer
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: New York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis City
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City finished 0-3. St. Louis City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, St. Louis City to win or draw at 1.31, landed.
New York Red Bulls face St. Louis City in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York Red Bulls have 2 wins from their last 5, while St. Louis City have 3 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.6-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is St. Louis City to win or draw at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a New York Red Bulls win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (66%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
New York Red Bulls come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at New York City FC. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to St. Louis City.
- LNew York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- WColumbus Crew 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- LLos Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- DSeattle Sounders 0-0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at New York Red Bulls. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WNew York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WColorado Rapids 0-3 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- WSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 15 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- R. DonkorInternational duty
- J. HallInternational duty
- M. JimenezInternational duty
- A. MehmetiInternational duty
- R. MosqueraInternational duty
- D. RuizInternational duty
- O. ValenciaInternational duty
- J. CheAnkle Injury
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- D. DownsInternational duty
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- P. AultAnkle Injury
- B. McSorleyAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices New York Red Bulls at 42% to win and St. Louis City at 32%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls Win | 42% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| St. Louis City Win | 32% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York Red Bulls or Draw at 1.83 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls or Draw | 68% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| St. Louis City or Draw | 58% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 46% | @ 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 34% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when New York Red Bulls or St. Louis City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls +2 | 91% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| New York Red Bulls +2 | 91% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.75 | 89% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.75 | 89% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.5 | 87% | 70% | @ 1.37 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.5 | 87% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.25 | 82% | 67% | @ 1.43 |
| New York Red Bulls +1.25 | 82% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| St. Louis City +1.5 | 80% | 86% | 1.10 |
| St. Louis City +1.5 | 80% | 86% | 1.11 |
| New York Red Bulls +1 | 78% | 63% | @ 1.53 |
| New York Red Bulls +1 | 78% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| St. Louis City +1.25 | 74% | 85% | 1.12 |
| St. Louis City +1.25 | 74% | 85% | 1.12 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.75 | 73% | 55% | @ 1.74 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.75 | 73% | 55% | @ 1.72 |
| St. Louis City +1 | 69% | 83% | 1.13 |
| St. Louis City +1 | 69% | 83% | 1.14 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.5 | 68% | 50% | @ 1.99 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.5 | 68% | 50% | @ 1.92 |
| St. Louis City +0.75 | 63% | 76% | 1.22 |
| St. Louis City +0.75 | 63% | 76% | 1.23 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.25 | 62% | 44% | @ 2.23 |
| New York Red Bulls +0.25 | 62% | 44% | @ 2.18 |
| St. Louis City +0.5 | 58% | 72% | 1.31 |
| St. Louis City +0.5 | 58% | 72% | 1.33 |
| New York Red Bulls 0 | 55% | 36% | @ 2.73 |
| New York Red Bulls 0 | 55% | 36% | @ 2.65 |
| St. Louis City +0.25 | 51% | 69% | 1.37 |
| St. Louis City +0.25 | 51% | 69% | 1.39 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.25 | 49% | 31% | @ 3.13 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.25 | 49% | 31% | @ 3.02 |
| St. Louis City 0 | 45% | 64% | 1.47 |
| St. Louis City 0 | 45% | 64% | 1.49 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.5 | 42% | 28% | @ 3.48 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.5 | 42% | 28% | @ 3.36 |
| St. Louis City -0.25 | 38% | 56% | 1.68 |
| St. Louis City -0.25 | 38% | 56% | 1.70 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.75 | 37% | 24% | @ 4.15 |
| New York Red Bulls -0.75 | 37% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| St. Louis City -0.5 | 32% | 50% | 1.85 |
| St. Louis City -0.5 | 32% | 50% | 1.92 |
| New York Red Bulls -1 | 31% | 17% | @ 5.90 |
| New York Red Bulls -1 | 31% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| St. Louis City -0.75 | 27% | 45% | 2.11 |
| St. Louis City -0.75 | 27% | 45% | 2.14 |
| New York Red Bulls -1.25 | 26% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| New York Red Bulls -1.25 | 26% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| St. Louis City -1 | 22% | 37% | 2.50 |
| St. Louis City -1 | 22% | 37% | 2.55 |
| New York Red Bulls -1.5 | 20% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| New York Red Bulls -1.5 | 20% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| St. Louis City -1.25 | 18% | 33% | 2.83 |
| St. Louis City -1.25 | 18% | 33% | 2.88 |
| St. Louis City -1.5 | 13% | 30% | 3.12 |
| St. Louis City -1.5 | 13% | 30% | 3.17 |
| St. Louis City -1.75 | 11% | 25% | 3.80 |
| St. Louis City -1.75 | 11% | 25% | 3.80 |
| St. Louis City -2 | 9% | 17% | 5.50 |
| St. Louis City -2 | 9% | 17% | 5.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
Our main pick is St. Louis City to win or draw at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.8 scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City.
What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for New York Red Bulls and 1.75 for St. Louis City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City play?
Kick-off is Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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