Sat 19 Sep2-2Finished

⚽ Championship

Birmingham vs Middlesbrough Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Birmingham 2-2 Middlesbrough

Birmingham vs Middlesbrough finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Birmingham or Draw at 1.57, landed.

Birmingham face Middlesbrough in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Birmingham have 2 wins from their last 5, while Middlesbrough have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Middlesbrough won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.3-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Birmingham +1 @ 1.27

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.31 – 1.31 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	9.5%	6.2%	2.7%	0.9%
1	9.5%	12.5%	8.2%	3.6%	1.2%
2	6.2%	8.2%	5.4%	2.3%	0.8%
3	2.7%	3.6%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%
4	0.9%	1.2%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Birmingham winDrawMiddlesbrough win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Birmingham with a +1 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Birmingham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Birmingham 39%Draw 29%Middlesbrough 32%

39%29%32%

39%

Birmingham Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Birmingham and Middlesbrough. Wins shown from Birmingham’s perspective: 1 drawn · Middlesbrough 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	Birmingham	2 – 2	Middlesbrough	D
2024-03-12	Birmingham	0 – 1	Middlesbrough	L
2023-10-21	Middlesbrough	1 – 0	Birmingham	L

📈 Recent form

Birmingham

Birmingham come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Derby. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Norwich.

DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LNorwich 2-1 BirminghamChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 WolvesChampionship
DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-3 at home to Norwich. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Crystal Palace.

DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
DMiddlesbrough 2-2 MillwallChampionship
WMiddlesbrough 4-3 NorwichChampionship
LCrystal Palace 3-0 MiddlesbroughLeague Cup
WQPR 0-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Birmingham

M. BirdNot in squad
T. Gardner-HickmanInjury
D. GrayInjury
M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
S. WrightOff the roster

Middlesbrough

A. JonesNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Birmingham at 39% to win and Middlesbrough at 32%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham Win	39%	34%	@ 2.80
Middlesbrough Win	32%	40%	@ 2.38
Draw	29%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Birmingham or Draw at 1.57 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham or Draw	66%	60%	@ 1.57
Middlesbrough or Draw	60%	66%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	79%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	73%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 2.5	51%	43%	@ 2.20
Over 2.5	49%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	27%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	26%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	46%	39%	@ 2.38

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Birmingham or Middlesbrough is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham +1.75	88%	83%	@ 1.14
Birmingham +1.5	86%	78%	@ 1.21
Middlesbrough +1.5	81%	83%	1.14
Birmingham +1.25	81%	77%	@ 1.24
Birmingham +1	76%	74%	1.27
Middlesbrough +1.25	76%	82%	1.16
Birmingham +0.75	71%	66%	@ 1.45
Middlesbrough +1	71%	80%	1.19
Birmingham +0.5	66%	60%	@ 1.60
Middlesbrough +0.75	65%	73%	1.31
Birmingham +0.25	60%	54%	@ 1.79
Middlesbrough +0.5	60%	66%	1.44
Birmingham 0	53%	46%	@ 2.10
Middlesbrough +0.25	53%	61%	1.55
Birmingham -0.25	47%	39%	@ 2.45
Middlesbrough 0	47%	54%	1.76
Birmingham -0.5	40%	34%	@ 2.79
Middlesbrough -0.25	40%	46%	2.08
Birmingham -0.75	35%	27%	@ 3.48
Middlesbrough -0.5	34%	40%	2.37
Birmingham -1	29%	20%	@ 4.80
Middlesbrough -0.75	29%	34%	2.79
Birmingham -1.25	24%	18%	@ 5.25
Middlesbrough -1	24%	26%	3.69
Middlesbrough -1.25	19%	23%	4.08
Birmingham -1.5	19%	17%	@ 5.75
Middlesbrough -1.5	14%	22%	4.25
Middlesbrough -1.75	12%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Birmingham 34%Draw 26%Middlesbrough 40%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?

Our model's main pick is Birmingham with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?

Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.3 scoreline for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough.

What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.31 for Birmingham and 1.31 for Middlesbrough. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Birmingham and Middlesbrough play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.