Sat 19 Sep1-2Finished

⚽ Championship

Lincoln vs Swansea Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lincoln vs Swansea in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lincoln 1-2 Swansea

Lincoln vs Swansea finished 1-2. Swansea won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.33, landed.

Lincoln face Swansea in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Lincoln have 2 wins from their last 5, while Swansea have 3 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Swansea win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 0.9-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lincoln vs Swansea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.90 – 1.31 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.0%	14.4%	9.4%	4.1%	1.3%
1	9.9%	12.9%	8.5%	3.7%	1.2%
2	4.4%	5.8%	3.8%	1.7%	0.5%
3	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Lincoln winDrawSwansea win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lincoln vs Swansea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Swansea win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points no (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Lincoln 34%Draw 30%Swansea 36%

34%30%36%

36%

Swansea Win

62%

Under 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Lincoln

Lincoln come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Bristol City. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Swansea.

LLincoln 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
WBristol City 0-1 LincolnChampionship
WPreston 0-1 LincolnChampionship
LBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup
DLincoln 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship

Swansea

Swansea come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Burnley. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Southampton.

WLincoln 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
WSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
LSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
WSwansea 2-0 WatfordChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lincoln

T. DarikwaKnee Injury
T. HamerHealth problems
M. MeliaThigh Injury

Swansea

C. BurgessAchilles Tendon Injury
J. KeyHealth problems
R. StewartInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lincoln at 34% to win and Swansea at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Swansea win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Swansea Win	36%	38%	@ 2.50
Lincoln Win	34%	34%	@ 2.80
Draw	30%	29%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Swansea or Draw at 1.40 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Swansea or Draw	65%	66%	@ 1.40
Lincoln or Draw	62%	62%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	82%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	65%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	62%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	38%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	35%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	18%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	57%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS Yes	43%	56%	@ 1.67

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lincoln or Swansea is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lincoln +1.75	86%	85%	1.12
Swansea +1.5	85%	84%	1.13
Lincoln +1.5	83%	80%	1.18
Swansea +1.25	80%	83%	1.15
Lincoln +1.25	78%	78%	1.22
Swansea +1	75%	81%	1.18
Lincoln +1	72%	76%	1.25
Swansea +0.75	70%	73%	1.30
Lincoln +0.75	67%	67%	1.42
Swansea +0.5	65%	67%	1.43
Lincoln +0.5	62%	60%	1.58
Swansea +0.25	58%	61%	1.55
Lincoln +0.25	55%	54%	1.76
Swansea 0	51%	54%	1.77
Lincoln 0	49%	46%	@ 2.10
Swansea -0.25	45%	46%	2.09
Lincoln -0.25	42%	39%	@ 2.47
Swansea -0.5	38%	40%	2.40
Lincoln -0.5	35%	33%	@ 2.85
Swansea -0.75	33%	33%	2.89
Lincoln -0.75	30%	27%	@ 3.56
Swansea -1	28%	24%	@ 3.94
Lincoln -1	25%	19%	@ 4.93
Swansea -1.25	22%	22%	4.43
Lincoln -1.25	20%	17%	@ 5.50
Swansea -1.5	17%	20%	4.80
Lincoln -1.5	15%	16%	5.90
Swansea -1.75	14%	15%	6.40

📈 How the market moved

Lincoln 33%Draw 28%Swansea 39%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lincoln vs Swansea?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Lincoln vs Swansea?

Our model makes a Swansea win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.3 scoreline for Lincoln vs Swansea.

What is the predicted score for Lincoln vs Swansea?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.90 for Lincoln and 1.31 for Swansea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lincoln and Swansea play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.