Sat 19 Sep0-4Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Nacional vs Famalicão Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Nacional vs Famalicão in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Nacional 0-4 Famalicão

Nacional vs Famalicão finished 0-4. Famalicão won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.27, did not land.

Nacional face Famalicão in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Nacional have 1 win from their last 5, while Famalicão have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Nacional won 1, Famalicão won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.1-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Nacional vs Famalicão with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.25

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.13 – 1.24 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	11.6%	7.2%	3.0%	0.9%
1	10.6%	13.1%	8.1%	3.4%	1.0%
2	6.0%	7.4%	4.6%	1.9%	0.6%
3	2.2%	2.8%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Nacional winDrawFamalicão win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Nacional vs Famalicão comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Famalicão win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Nacional 25%Draw 27%Famalicão 48%

25%27%48%

48%

Famalicão Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Nacional and Famalicão. Wins shown from Nacional’s perspective: Nacional 1 · 1 drawn · Famalicão 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	Nacional	0 – 4	Famalicão	L
2026-03-21	Famalicão	1 – 0	Nacional	L
2025-11-01	Nacional	0 – 1	Famalicão	L
2025-03-01	Nacional	2 – 1	Famalicão	W
2024-09-29	Famalicão	0 – 0	Nacional	D

📈 Recent form

Nacional

Nacional come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 13. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Famalicão.

LNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
LNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
LSporting CP 2-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
LNacional 2-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
LVitória SC 1-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga

Famalicão

Famalicão come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Nacional. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Santa Clara.

WNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 1-1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 0-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
LSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Nacional at 25% to win and Famalicão at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão Win	48%	46%	@ 2.05
Draw	27%	28%	@ 3.40
Nacional Win	25%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Famalicão or Draw at 1.28 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão or Draw	74%	74%	@ 1.28
Nacional or Draw	52%	54%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	75%	@ 1.25
Over 1.5	68%	71%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	58%	55%	@ 1.70
Over 2.5	42%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	32%	29%	@ 3.25
Over 3.5	22%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS Yes	48%	50%	@ 1.91

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Nacional or Famalicão is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Nacional +2	82%	86%	1.10
Famalicão +1	82%	86%	1.10
Nacional +1.75	79%	82%	1.16
Famalicão +0.75	78%	–	1.20
Nacional +1.5	75%	76%	1.25
Famalicão +0.5	74%	74%	1.29
Nacional +1.25	69%	74%	1.28
Famalicão +0.25	68%	70%	1.37
Nacional +1	63%	70%	1.36
Famalicão 0	61%	64%	1.50
Nacional +0.75	57%	61%	1.57
Famalicão -0.25	55%	54%	1.79
Nacional +0.5	52%	54%	1.78
Famalicão -0.5	48%	46%	@ 2.08
Nacional +0.25	45%	46%	2.08
Famalicão -0.75	43%	39%	@ 2.43
Nacional 0	39%	36%	@ 2.62
Famalicão -1	37%	30%	@ 3.16
Nacional -0.25	32%	30%	@ 3.13
Famalicão -1.25	31%	26%	@ 3.61
Nacional -0.5	26%	26%	3.62
Famalicão -1.5	25%	24%	@ 4.01
Famalicão -1.75	21%	18%	@ 5.25
Nacional -1	18%	14%	@ 7.00
Famalicão -2	18%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Nacional 26%Draw 28%Famalicão 46%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Nacional vs Famalicão?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Famalicão?

Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.2 scoreline for Nacional vs Famalicão.

What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Famalicão?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.13 for Nacional and 1.24 for Famalicão. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Nacional and Famalicão play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.