Sun 20 Sep0-1Finished

⚽ Premier League

Bournemouth vs Liverpool Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bournemouth vs Liverpool in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool

Bournemouth vs Liverpool finished 0-1. Liverpool won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Bournemouth or Draw at 1.73, did not land.

Bournemouth face Liverpool in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Bournemouth have 0 wins from their last 4, while Liverpool have 1 win from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Bournemouth won 1, Liverpool won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bournemouth win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.5-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bournemouth vs Liverpool with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Bournemouth +1.5 @ 1.26

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.48 – 1.61 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	7.3%	5.9%	3.2%	1.3%
1	6.7%	10.8%	8.7%	4.7%	1.9%
2	5.0%	8.0%	6.5%	3.5%	1.4%
3	2.5%	4.0%	3.2%	1.7%	0.7%
4	0.9%	1.5%	1.2%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Bournemouth winDrawLiverpool win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bournemouth vs Liverpool comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Bournemouth with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 85%. On the match result, the model rates a Bournemouth win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Bournemouth 38%Draw 28%Liverpool 34%

38%28%34%

38%

Bournemouth Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Bournemouth and Liverpool. Wins shown from Bournemouth’s perspective: Bournemouth 1 · Liverpool 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	Bournemouth	0 – 1	Liverpool	L
2026-01-24	Bournemouth	3 – 2	Liverpool	W
2025-08-15	Liverpool	4 – 2	Bournemouth	L
2025-02-01	Bournemouth	0 – 2	Liverpool	L
2024-09-21	Liverpool	3 – 0	Bournemouth	L

📈 Recent form

Bournemouth

Bournemouth come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Lincoln. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Liverpool.

LBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
WReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
DBournemouth 2-2 BrentfordPremier League
WBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup
DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League

Liverpool

Liverpool come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Tottenham.

WBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
WLiverpool 3-1 TottenhamLeague Cup
DLiverpool 0-0 FulhamPremier League
WLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
WIpswich 0-2 LiverpoolPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Bournemouth

A. AdliCalf Injury
J. AraujoThigh Injury
E. J. KroupiFoot Injury
V. MilosavljevicInjury

Liverpool

C. BradleyKnee Injury
F. ChiesaBack Injury
H. EkitikeAchilles Tendon Injury
G. LeoniKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bournemouth at 38% to win and Liverpool at 34%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Bournemouth win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bournemouth Win	38%	30%	@ 3.20
Liverpool Win	34%	45%	@ 2.10
Draw	28%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bournemouth or Draw at 1.70 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bournemouth or Draw	65%	55%	@ 1.70
Liverpool or Draw	61%	70%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	83%	@ 1.14
Under 3.5	63%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 2.5	60%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 2.5	40%	36%	@ 2.62
Over 3.5	37%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 1.5	19%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	38%	35%	@ 2.62

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bournemouth or Liverpool is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bournemouth +2	90%	86%	1.10
Bournemouth +1.75	88%	79%	@ 1.19
Bournemouth +1.5	85%	75%	@ 1.26
Liverpool +1.5	82%	84%	1.13
Bournemouth +1.25	80%	73%	@ 1.31
Liverpool +1.25	77%	83%	1.14
Bournemouth +1	75%	69%	@ 1.39
Liverpool +1	72%	82%	1.16
Bournemouth +0.75	70%	61%	@ 1.56
Liverpool +0.75	66%	75%	1.26
Bournemouth +0.5	65%	55%	@ 1.73
Liverpool +0.5	61%	69%	1.38
Bournemouth +0.25	59%	48%	@ 2.00
Liverpool +0.25	55%	65%	1.47
Bournemouth 0	52%	41%	@ 2.35
Liverpool 0	48%	59%	1.61
Bournemouth -0.25	45%	35%	@ 2.75
Liverpool -0.25	41%	52%	1.88
Bournemouth -0.5	39%	31%	@ 3.10
Liverpool -0.5	35%	45%	2.13
Bournemouth -0.75	34%	25%	@ 3.84
Liverpool -0.75	30%	39%	2.44
Bournemouth -1	28%	18%	@ 5.25
Liverpool -1	25%	31%	3.06
Bournemouth -1.25	23%	17%	@ 5.75
Liverpool -1.25	20%	27%	3.48
Bournemouth -1.5	18%	16%	@ 5.90
Liverpool -1.5	15%	25%	3.70
Liverpool -1.75	12%	21%	4.50
Liverpool -2	10%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Bournemouth 30%Draw 25%Liverpool 45%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

Our model's main pick is Bournemouth with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

Our model makes a Bournemouth win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline for Bournemouth vs Liverpool.

What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.48 for Bournemouth and 1.61 for Liverpool. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bournemouth and Liverpool play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.