Wed 28 Oct17:30Upcoming

⚽ Serie A

AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AC Milan vs Bologna in the Serie A. Kick-off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AC Milan face Bologna in the Serie A, kicking off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 17:30 UTC. Recent form: AC Milan have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bologna have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, AC Milan won 3, Bologna won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AC Milan vs Bologna with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.55 – 1.07 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	7.8%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%
1	11.3%	12.1%	6.5%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.7%	9.4%	5.0%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.5%	4.8%	2.6%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.8%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

AC Milan winDrawBologna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Bologna comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AC Milan win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

AC Milan 52%Draw 25%Bologna 23%

52%25%23%

52%

AC Milan Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between AC Milan and Bologna. Wins shown from AC Milan’s perspective: AC Milan 3 · 1 drawn · Bologna 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-03	Bologna	0 – 3	AC Milan	W
2025-09-14	AC Milan	1 – 0	Bologna	W
2025-05-09	AC Milan	3 – 1	Bologna	W
2025-02-27	Bologna	2 – 1	AC Milan	L
2024-01-27	AC Milan	2 – 2	Bologna	D

📈 Recent form

AC Milan

AC Milan come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Red Bull Salzburg. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Bournemouth.

LBournemouth 3-0 AC MilanUEFA Europa League
WAC Milan 3-2 AtalantaSerie A
WRed Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC MilanUEFA Europa League
DSassuolo 1-1 AC MilanSerie A
WAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Cagliari. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Inter.

WCagliari 0-2 BolognaSerie A
LBologna 1-3 InterSerie A
WLecce 1-2 BolognaSerie A
DBologna 1-1 TorinoSerie A
LNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AC Milan at 52% to win and Bologna at 23%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan Win	52%	58%	@ 1.62
Draw	25%	25%	@ 3.80
Bologna Win	23%	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AC Milan or Draw at 1.14 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan or Draw	76%	83%	@ 1.14
Bologna or Draw	48%	42%	@ 2.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	73%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	51%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	49%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	27%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	26%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	48%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

AC Milan 58%Draw 24%Bologna 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AC Milan vs Bologna?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Bologna?

Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for AC Milan vs Bologna.

What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Bologna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.55 for AC Milan and 1.07 for Bologna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AC Milan and Bologna play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 28 October 2026, 17:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.