⚽ Serie A
Monza vs Napoli Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monza vs Napoli in the Serie A. Kick-off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Monza face Napoli in the Serie A, kicking off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Monza have 2 wins from their last 5, while Napoli have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Napoli won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 1.0-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monza vs Napoli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Monza vs Napoli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is a Napoli win at odds 1.73, with a 65% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Monza and Napoli. Wins shown from Monza’s perspective: 1 drawn · Napoli 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-19 | Monza | 0 – 1 | Napoli | L |
| 2024-09-29 | Napoli | 2 – 0 | Monza | L |
| 2024-04-07 | Monza | 2 – 4 | Napoli | L |
| 2023-12-29 | Napoli | 0 – 0 | Monza | D |
📈 Recent form
Monza come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Cagliari. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Torino.
- LTorino 3-2 MonzaSerie A
- WMonza 4-0 CagliariSerie A
- LLazio 3-1 MonzaSerie A
- DBrest 2-2 MonzaFriendlies Clubs
- WMonza 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
Napoli come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Frosinone. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Venezia.
- DNapoli 3-3 AS RomaSerie A
- WNapoli 4-3 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
- LVenezia 1-0 NapoliSerie A
- LVillarreal 3-1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- WNapoli 3-0 FrosinoneSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
No absentees reported.
- A. BuongiornoJumpers Knee
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Monza at 10% to win and Napoli at 65%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli Win | 65% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| Monza Win | 10% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Napoli or Draw at 1.18 (87% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli or Draw | 87% | 78% | @ 1.18 |
| Monza or Draw | 32% | 46% | @ 2.15 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 63% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 44% | 45% | @ 2.05 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Monza vs Napoli?
Our model's pick is a Napoli win at odds 1.73, with a 65% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 54%.
Who is the favourite for Monza vs Napoli?
Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 1.0-2.0 scoreline for Monza vs Napoli.
What is the predicted score for Monza vs Napoli?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.04 for Monza and 2.04 for Napoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Monza and Napoli play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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