Thu 29 Oct00:30Upcoming

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Bahia vs São Paulo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bahia vs São Paulo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Thursday 29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Bahia face São Paulo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Thursday 29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Bahia have 2 wins from their last 5, while São Paulo have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, São Paulo won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.5-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bahia vs São Paulo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

73%Bookmaker odds imply 73%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.46 – 0.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	8.5%	4.2%	1.4%	0.3%
1	12.7%	12.5%	6.1%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.3%	9.1%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
3	4.5%	4.4%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.7%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Bahia winDrawSão Paulo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bahia vs São Paulo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Bahia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Bahia 38%Draw 27%São Paulo 36%

38%27%36%

38%

Bahia Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Bahia and São Paulo. Wins shown from Bahia’s perspective: 2 drawn · São Paulo 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-03	São Paulo	2 – 2	Bahia	D
2024-11-06	Bahia	0 – 3	São Paulo	L
2024-06-30	São Paulo	3 – 1	Bahia	L
2023-11-29	Bahia	0 – 1	São Paulo	L
2023-07-30	São Paulo	0 – 0	Bahia	D

📈 Recent form

Bahia

Bahia come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Mirassol. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Flamengo.

LBahia 0-3 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WBahia 1-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
LPalmeiras 1-0 BahiaBrazilian Série A
LAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
WBahia 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A

São Paulo

São Paulo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Vasco da Gama. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Cruzeiro.

DMirassol 1-1 São PauloBrazilian Série A
WSão Paulo 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
WSão Paulo 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
LCruzeiro 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
LSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bahia at 38% to win and São Paulo at 36%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bahia Win	38%	48%	@ 1.91
São Paulo Win	36%	24%	@ 3.80
Draw	27%	27%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bahia or Draw at 1.25 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bahia or Draw	64%	76%	@ 1.25
São Paulo or Draw	62%	52%	@ 1.83

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	77%	73%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	70%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	56%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	44%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	30%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	23%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS Yes	48%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 How the market moved

Bahia 47%Draw 27%São Paulo 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bahia vs São Paulo?

Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Bahia vs São Paulo?

Our model makes a Bahia win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline for Bahia vs São Paulo.

What is the predicted score for Bahia vs São Paulo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.46 for Bahia and 0.98 for São Paulo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bahia and São Paulo play?

Kick-off is Thursday 29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.