Thu 29 Oct19:45Upcoming

⚽ Serie A

Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fiorentina vs Atalanta in the Serie A. Kick-off Thursday 29 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Fiorentina face Atalanta in the Serie A, kicking off Thursday 29 October 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Fiorentina have 1 win from their last 5, while Atalanta have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Fiorentina won 2, Atalanta won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.2-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fiorentina vs Atalanta with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Atalanta or Draw @ 1.57

72%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.22 – 1.64 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	9.4%	7.7%	4.2%	1.7%
1	7.0%	11.5%	9.4%	5.1%	2.1%
2	4.3%	7.0%	5.7%	3.1%	1.3%
3	1.7%	2.8%	2.3%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Fiorentina winDrawAtalanta win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Atalanta or Draw at odds 1.57, with a 72% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Fiorentina 29%Draw 24%Atalanta 47%

29%24%47%

47%

Atalanta Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Fiorentina and Atalanta. Wins shown from Fiorentina’s perspective: Fiorentina 2 · 1 drawn · Atalanta 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-22	Fiorentina	1 – 1	Atalanta	D
2025-11-30	Atalanta	2 – 0	Fiorentina	L
2025-03-30	Fiorentina	1 – 0	Atalanta	W
2024-09-15	Atalanta	3 – 2	Fiorentina	L
2024-06-02	Atalanta	2 – 3	Fiorentina	W

📈 Recent form

Fiorentina

Fiorentina come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Pisa. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Como.

LFiorentina 1-3 ComoSerie A
LGenoa 2-1 FiorentinaSerie A
DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WFiorentina 3-0 PisaCoppa Italia
WVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Pafos. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Ajax.

LAjax 2-0 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference
LAC Milan 3-2 AtalantaSerie A
WAtalanta 3-1 PafosUEFA Europa Conference
WAtalanta 3-1 VeneziaSerie A
LJuventus 2-0 AtalantaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Fiorentina

R. SottilBack Injury

Atalanta

I. HienMuscle Bruise

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fiorentina at 29% to win and Atalanta at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta Win	47%	31%	@ 3.00
Fiorentina Win	29%	41%	@ 2.30
Draw	24%	28%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atalanta or Draw at 1.57 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta or Draw	72%	59%	@ 1.57
Fiorentina or Draw	54%	69%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	68%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	54%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	46%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	32%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	22%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	44%	41%	@ 2.25

📈 How the market moved

Fiorentina 42%Draw 27%Atalanta 31%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Our model's pick is Atalanta or Draw at odds 1.57, with a 72% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.

Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.6 scoreline for Fiorentina vs Atalanta.

What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.22 for Fiorentina and 1.64 for Atalanta. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fiorentina and Atalanta play?

Kick-off is Thursday 29 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.