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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Thursday 29 October 2026, 23:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Vasco da Gama face Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Thursday 29 October 2026, 23:00 UTC. Recent form: Vasco da Gama have 3 wins from their last 5, while Flamengo have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Flamengo won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.0-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

70%Bookmaker odds imply 70%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.02 – 1.73 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	11.1%	9.6%	5.5%	2.4%
1	6.5%	11.3%	9.8%	5.6%	2.4%
2	3.3%	5.8%	5.0%	2.9%	1.2%
3	1.1%	2.0%	1.7%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vasco da Gama winDrawFlamengo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Vasco da Gama 23%Draw 28%Flamengo 50%

23%28%50%

50%

Flamengo Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Vasco da Gama and Flamengo. Wins shown from Vasco da Gama’s perspective: 2 drawn · Flamengo 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-03	Flamengo	2 – 2	Vasco da Gama	D
2024-09-15	Flamengo	1 – 1	Vasco da Gama	D
2024-06-02	Vasco da Gama	1 – 6	Flamengo	L
2023-10-22	Flamengo	1 – 0	Vasco da Gama	L
2023-06-05	Vasco da Gama	1 – 4	Flamengo	L

📈 Recent form

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Corinthians. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Boca Juniors.

WVasco da Gama 3-2 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
LVasco da Gama 1-3 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LSão Paulo 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
WBoca Juniors 0-1 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
DVasco da Gama 0-0 RemoBrazilian Série A

Flamengo

Flamengo come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Bahia.

DFlamengo 0-0 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores
WBahia 0-3 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WFlamengo 1-0 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
DSantos 2-2 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WFlamengo 2-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vasco da Gama at 23% to win and Flamengo at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo Win	50%	47%	@ 2.00
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.40
Vasco da Gama Win	23%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Flamengo or Draw at 1.28 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo or Draw	76%	74%	@ 1.28
Vasco da Gama or Draw	49%	53%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	70%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	52%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 2.5	48%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	30%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	24%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	48%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 How the market moved

Vasco da Gama 26%Draw 27%Flamengo 47%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.7 scoreline for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo.

What is the predicted score for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.02 for Vasco da Gama and 1.73 for Flamengo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vasco da Gama and Flamengo play?

Kick-off is Thursday 29 October 2026, 23:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.