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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Friday 30 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Grêmio face Athletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Friday 30 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Grêmio have no wins from their last 5, while Athletico Paranaense have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Grêmio won 3, Athletico Paranaense won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Grêmio win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.3-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.40

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.31 – 1.41 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.6%	9.3%	6.5%	3.1%	1.1%
1	8.6%	12.2%	8.6%	4.0%	1.4%
2	5.7%	8.0%	5.6%	2.6%	0.9%
3	2.5%	3.5%	2.5%	1.2%	0.4%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Grêmio winDrawAthletico Paranaense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Grêmio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Grêmio 37%Draw 30%Athletico Paranaense 32%

37%30%32%

37%

Grêmio Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Grêmio and Athletico Paranaense. Wins shown from Grêmio’s perspective: Grêmio 3 · 1 drawn · Athletico Paranaense 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-02	Athletico Paranaense	0 – 0	Grêmio	D
2024-08-04	Athletico Paranaense	0 – 2	Grêmio	W
2024-04-17	Grêmio	2 – 0	Athletico Paranaense	W
2023-10-18	Grêmio	1 – 2	Athletico Paranaense	L
2023-05-27	Athletico Paranaense	1 – 2	Grêmio	W

📈 Recent form

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at home to Cruzeiro.

LGrêmio 2-4 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DGrêmio 1-1 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
DRemo 1-1 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A

Athletico Paranaense

Athletico Paranaense come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Chapecoense. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Palmeiras.

DVitória 1-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LAthletico Paranaense 0-2 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
WChapecoense 1-4 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
DAthletico Paranaense 2-2 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A
WAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Grêmio at 37% to win and Athletico Paranaense at 32%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Grêmio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio Win	37%	39%	@ 2.35
Athletico Paranaense Win	32%	32%	@ 2.90
Draw	30%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Grêmio or Draw at 1.40 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio or Draw	66%	68%	@ 1.40
Athletico Paranaense or Draw	61%	61%	@ 1.57

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 3.5	71%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	51%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 2.5	49%	57%	@ 1.65
Over 3.5	29%	24%	@ 4.00
Under 1.5	24%	32%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS No	46%	52%	@ 1.80

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense?

Our model makes a Grêmio win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline for Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense.

What is the predicted score for Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.31 for Grêmio and 1.41 for Athletico Paranaense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Grêmio and Athletico Paranaense play?

Kick-off is Friday 30 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.