CSKA Sofia

Thu 30 Jul0-0Finished

Qarabag

⚽ UEFA Europa League

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: CSKA Sofia 0-0 Qarabag

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.32, did not land.

CSKA Sofia face Qarabag in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: CSKA Sofia have 2 wins from their last 3, while Qarabag have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 2 meetings, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.7-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.32

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.69 – 1.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.3%	6.3%	4.6%	2.2%	0.8%
1	7.2%	10.6%	7.7%	3.8%	1.4%
2	6.1%	8.9%	6.5%	3.2%	1.2%
3	3.4%	5.0%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%
4	1.5%	2.1%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

CSKA Sofia winDrawQarabag win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a CSKA Sofia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

CSKA Sofia 41%Draw 30%Qarabag 28%

41%30%28%

41%

CSKA Sofia Win

61%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between CSKA Sofia and Qarabag. Wins shown from CSKA Sofia’s perspective: 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-30	CSKA Sofia	0 – 0	Qarabag	D
2026-07-23	Qarabag	0 – 0	CSKA Sofia	D

📈 Recent form

CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Arda Kardzhali. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to OFI.

WCSKA Sofia 4-1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
WLevski Sofia 2-4 CSKA SofiaSuper Cup
DSpartak Varna 1-1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
WCSKA Sofia 3-1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
LCSKA Sofia 0-2 OFIUEFA Europa League

Qarabag

Qarabag come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Dynamo Kyiv. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Twente.

WQarabag 1-0 Safa BakuPremyer Liqa
DZira 1-1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
LQarabag 1-2 TwenteUEFA Europa Conference
WTwente 0-1 QarabagUEFA Europa Conference
WQarabag 2-0 Dynamo KyivUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices CSKA Sofia at 41% to win and Qarabag at 28%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
CSKA Sofia Win	41%	36%	@ 2.55
Draw	30%	29%	@ 3.15
Qarabag Win	28%	35%	@ 2.65

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is CSKA Sofia or Draw at 1.40 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
CSKA Sofia or Draw	68%	65%	@ 1.40
Qarabag or Draw	56%	64%	@ 1.43

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	82%	69%	@ 1.32
Under 3.5	61%	74%	@ 1.24
Over 2.5	61%	45%	@ 2.02
Under 2.5	39%	55%	@ 1.68
Over 3.5	39%	26%	@ 3.50
Under 1.5	18%	31%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	51%	@ 1.78
BTTS No	37%	49%	@ 1.89

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?

Our model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.5 scoreline for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag.

What is the predicted score for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.69 for CSKA Sofia and 1.46 for Qarabag. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do CSKA Sofia and Qarabag play?

Kick-off is Thursday 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.