Wed 28 Oct19:45Upcoming

⚽ Premiership

Aberdeen vs Falkirk Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aberdeen vs Falkirk in the Premiership. Kick-off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Aberdeen face Falkirk in the Premiership, kicking off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Aberdeen have 2 wins from their last 5, while Falkirk have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Aberdeen win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.2-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aberdeen vs Falkirk with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

84%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.22 – 0.86 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.5%	10.7%	4.6%	1.3%	0.3%
1	15.2%	13.1%	5.6%	1.6%	0.3%
2	9.3%	8.0%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
3	3.8%	3.3%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.2%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Aberdeen winDrawFalkirk win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Aberdeen vs Falkirk comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Aberdeen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean under 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points no (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Aberdeen 45%Draw 28%Falkirk 26%

45%28%26%

45%

Aberdeen Win

66%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Aberdeen

Aberdeen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Motherwell. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to St Johnstone.

WAberdeen 3-1 St MirrenPremiership
LAberdeen 0-1 St JohnstonePremiership
WDunfermline 1-4 AberdeenFriendlies Clubs
DHibernian 1-1 AberdeenPremiership
WMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership

Falkirk

Falkirk come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Hibernian. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Dundee.

WHibernian 1-2 FalkirkPremiership
LFalkirk 1-2 DundeePremiership
DSt Johnstone 1-1 FalkirkPremiership
WFalkirk 2-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
DDundee Utd 1-1 FalkirkPremiership

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Aberdeen at 45% to win and Falkirk at 26%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Aberdeen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Aberdeen Win	45%	48%	@ 1.91
Draw	28%	26%	@ 3.50
Falkirk Win	26%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Aberdeen or Draw at 1.28 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Aberdeen or Draw	72%	74%	@ 1.28
Falkirk or Draw	53%	52%	@ 1.83

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	84%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	66%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 1.5	62%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 1.5	38%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 2.5	34%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 3.5	16%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	60%	47%	@ 2.00
BTTS Yes	40%	53%	@ 1.75

📈 How the market moved

Aberdeen 48%Draw 26%Falkirk 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aberdeen vs Falkirk?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Aberdeen vs Falkirk?

Our model makes an Aberdeen win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.2-0.9 scoreline for Aberdeen vs Falkirk.

What is the predicted score for Aberdeen vs Falkirk?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.22 for Aberdeen and 0.86 for Falkirk. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Aberdeen and Falkirk play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.