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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Thursday 05 November 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Botafogo face Atlético Mineiro in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Thursday 05 November 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Botafogo have 1 win from their last 5, while Atlético Mineiro have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Botafogo won 2, Atlético Mineiro won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.50

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.29 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	9.9%	6.2%	2.6%	0.8%
1	10.2%	12.7%	7.9%	3.3%	1.0%
2	6.6%	8.2%	5.1%	2.1%	0.7%
3	2.8%	3.5%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Botafogo winDrawAtlético Mineiro win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Botafogo 45%Draw 28%Atlético Mineiro 27%

45%28%27%

45%

Botafogo Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Botafogo and Atlético Mineiro. Wins shown from Botafogo’s perspective: Botafogo 2 · 2 drawn · Atlético Mineiro 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Atlético Mineiro	1 – 1	Botafogo	D
2024-11-21	Atlético Mineiro	0 – 0	Botafogo	D
2024-07-07	Botafogo	3 – 0	Atlético Mineiro	W
2023-09-17	Atlético Mineiro	1 – 0	Botafogo	L
2023-05-07	Botafogo	2 – 0	Atlético Mineiro	W

📈 Recent form

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Chapecoense. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Remo.

LRemo 2-1 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LInternacional 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 1-0 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 1-1 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

Atlético Mineiro

Atlético Mineiro come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Coritiba. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Grêmio.

LGrêmio 2-0 Atlético MineiroCopa Do Brasil
LAtlético Mineiro 0-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 3-2 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A
LAtletico Torque 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WAtlético Mineiro 1-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Botafogo

J. BarreraAnkle Injury
Danilo SantosInjury
Kaio PantaleaoKnee Injury
Arthur ChavesNot in squad

Atlético Mineiro

T. BorbasMuscle Injury
M. CassierraMuscle Injury
FredMuscle Injury
ReinierInjury
Ruan TressoldiMuscle Injury

🧩 Line-ups

Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1

22Everson

23Preciado

40Vitão

3Duarte

36Pascini

25Pérez

39Cissé

92Dudu

5Alexsander

10Scarpa

29Soares

9Soares

90Pereira

29Paulinho

75Huguinho

88Edenilson

6Medina

21Marçal

5Ferraresi

34Justino

2Vitinho

12Batista

Botafogo 4-4-2

Atletico-MG

Official starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Substitutes31Alves1Delfim14Hugo42Vaz34Barros45Teixeira48Gutte59Santos38Índio58Soares

Botafogo

Official starting XI (4-4-2)

Substitutes17Warleson13Telles33Monzón4Ponte22Ziyech10Montoro25Allan91Andrade77Villalba59Toledo11Martins19Cabral

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Botafogo at 45% to win and Atlético Mineiro at 27%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo Win	45%	58%	@ 1.65
Draw	28%	24%	@ 3.90
Atlético Mineiro Win	27%	18%	@ 5.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.22 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo or Draw	72%	82%	@ 1.22
Atlético Mineiro or Draw	54%	42%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	75%	64%	@ 1.50
Over 1.5	72%	79%	@ 1.20
Under 2.5	53%	43%	@ 2.20
Over 2.5	47%	57%	@ 1.65
Under 1.5	28%	21%	@ 4.50
Over 3.5	25%	36%	@ 2.62

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	49%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Botafogo 54%Draw 25%Atlético Mineiro 22%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.

Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro.

What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.29 for Botafogo and 1.25 for Atlético Mineiro. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Botafogo and Atlético Mineiro play?

Kick-off is Thursday 05 November 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.