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⚽ Brazilian Série A

São Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for São Paulo vs Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Thursday 05 November 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

São Paulo face Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Thursday 05 November 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: São Paulo have 2 wins from their last 5, while Corinthians have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, São Paulo won 2, Corinthians won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.5-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for São Paulo vs Corinthians with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.40

72%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.53 – 1.02 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.8%	8.0%	4.1%	1.4%	0.4%
1	11.9%	12.2%	6.2%	2.1%	0.5%
2	9.1%	9.3%	4.8%	1.6%	0.4%
3	4.7%	4.8%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.8%	1.8%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

São Paulo winDrawCorinthians win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Corinthians comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 72% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a São Paulo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

São Paulo 40%Draw 34%Corinthians 26%

40%34%26%

40%

São Paulo Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between São Paulo and Corinthians. Wins shown from São Paulo’s perspective: São Paulo 2 · 2 drawn · Corinthians 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Corinthians	3 – 2	São Paulo	L
2024-09-29	São Paulo	3 – 1	Corinthians	W
2024-06-16	Corinthians	2 – 2	São Paulo	D
2023-09-30	São Paulo	2 – 1	Corinthians	W
2023-05-14	Corinthians	1 – 1	São Paulo	D

📈 Recent form

São Paulo

São Paulo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Vasco da Gama. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Bahia.

LBahia 3-2 São PauloBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 1-1 São PauloBrazilian Série A
WSão Paulo 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
WSão Paulo 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
LCruzeiro 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A

Corinthians

Corinthians come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Mirassol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Vasco da Gama.

WCorinthians 2-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
LVasco da Gama 3-2 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
DCorinthians 1-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
LPalmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
LInternacional 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

São Paulo

ArturBack Injury
N. BosshardtKnee Injury
ButaKnee Injury
D. DuarteKnee Injury
Marcos AntonioAnkle Injury
SabinoSuspended (cards)
FerreiraInjury

Corinthians

M. DepayNot in squad
Gabriel PaulistaNot in squad
KaykeKnee Injury
Z. LabyadKnee Injury
MatheuzinhoSuspended (cards)
RanieleNot in squad
Alex SantanaNot in squad

🧩 Line-ups

Corinthians 4-2-3-1

1Souza

20Milans

5Ramalho

13Henrique

26Angileri

49Luiz

21Bidu

37César

8Garro

7Bidon

9Alberto

10Luciano

7Moura

37Artur

12Borduchi

48Djhordney

16Bobadilla

32Lima

2Tolói

5Arboleda

28Newton

23Rafael

Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1

Corinthians

Official starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Substitutes51Camargo46Hugo4Tchoca35Charles29Allan23Pereira61Dieguinho19Carrillo18Raul11Vitinho10Depay56Negão

Sao Paulo

Official starting XI (3-4-2-1)

Substitutes31Coronel54Osorio19Ramon18Wendell27Sá94Danielzinho11Ferreirinha29Maia46Ferreira45Lucca9Calleri43Santana

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices São Paulo at 40% to win and Corinthians at 26%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
São Paulo Win	40%	41%	@ 2.30
Draw	34%	30%	@ 3.20
Corinthians Win	26%	29%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is São Paulo or Draw at 1.33 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
São Paulo or Draw	70%	71%	@ 1.33
Corinthians or Draw	56%	59%	@ 1.57

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	75%	78%	@ 1.22
Over 1.5	72%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	53%	59%	@ 1.60
Over 2.5	47%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	28%	32%	@ 3.00
Over 3.5	25%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS No	50%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 How the market moved

São Paulo 41%Draw 30%Corinthians 29%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for São Paulo vs Corinthians?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 72% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for São Paulo vs Corinthians?

Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline for São Paulo vs Corinthians.

What is the predicted score for São Paulo vs Corinthians?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.53 for São Paulo and 1.02 for Corinthians. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do São Paulo and Corinthians play?

Kick-off is Thursday 05 November 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.