⚽ Eredivisie
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Friday 18 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Result: Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle finished 3-0. Groningen won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.48, landed.
Groningen face PEC Zwolle in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Friday 18 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Groningen have 1 win from their last 5, while PEC Zwolle have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Groningen won 1, PEC Zwolle won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Groningen win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 2.0-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is PEC Zwolle with a +2 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Groningen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (62%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Groningen and PEC Zwolle. Wins shown from Groningen’s perspective: Groningen 1 · 3 drawn · PEC Zwolle 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Groningen | 3 – 0 | PEC Zwolle | W |
| 2026-03-13 | PEC Zwolle | 1 – 1 | Groningen | D |
| 2025-11-23 | Groningen | 2 – 2 | PEC Zwolle | D |
| 2025-05-18 | PEC Zwolle | 2 – 0 | Groningen | L |
| 2024-12-08 | Groningen | 0 – 0 | PEC Zwolle | D |
📈 Recent form
Groningen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 11. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to PEC Zwolle. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Fortuna Sittard.
- WGroningen 3-0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- DGo Ahead Eagles 1-1 GroningenEredivisie
- DGroningen 2-2 TwenteEredivisie
- LGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- LPSV Eindhoven 5-1 GroningenEredivisie
PEC Zwolle come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Heerenveen. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Groningen.
- LGroningen 3-0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- LPEC Zwolle 0-7 FeyenoordEredivisie
- DSparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- LPEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- WHeerenveen 0-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. BrandisNot in squad
- T. HernesInjury
- M. JengLeg Injury
- T. MerceraInjury
- R. MetuInjury
- W. PrinsNot in squad
- E. van der LaanNot in squad
- F. KrastevAchilles Tendon Injury
- Y. NamliKnee Injury
- R. ThomasInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Groningen at 48% to win and PEC Zwolle at 22%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Groningen win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen Win | 48% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| PEC Zwolle Win | 22% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Groningen or Draw at 1.18 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen or Draw | 76% | 81% | @ 1.18 |
| PEC Zwolle or Draw | 49% | 41% | @ 2.20 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Under 3.5 | 59% | 51% | @ 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 49% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 38% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Groningen or PEC Zwolle is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +2 | 81% | – | @ 1.26 |
| Groningen +0.75 | 79% | 85% | 1.12 |
| PEC Zwolle +1.75 | 77% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Groningen +0.5 | 76% | 80% | 1.18 |
| PEC Zwolle +1.5 | 73% | 62% | @ 1.54 |
| Groningen +0.25 | 69% | 78% | 1.22 |
| PEC Zwolle +1.25 | 67% | 58% | @ 1.65 |
| Groningen 0 | 63% | 75% | 1.26 |
| PEC Zwolle +1 | 61% | 52% | @ 1.84 |
| Groningen -0.25 | 57% | 66% | 1.44 |
| PEC Zwolle +0.75 | 55% | 46% | @ 2.08 |
| Groningen -0.5 | 51% | 59% | 1.62 |
| PEC Zwolle +0.5 | 49% | 41% | @ 2.33 |
| Groningen -0.75 | 45% | 54% | 1.76 |
| PEC Zwolle +0.25 | 43% | 34% | @ 2.79 |
| Groningen -1 | 39% | 48% | 2.01 |
| PEC Zwolle 0 | 37% | 25% | @ 3.88 |
| Groningen -1.25 | 33% | 42% | 2.27 |
| PEC Zwolle -0.25 | 31% | 22% | @ 4.37 |
| Groningen -1.5 | 27% | 38% | 2.50 |
| PEC Zwolle -0.5 | 24% | 20% | @ 4.65 |
| Groningen -1.75 | 23% | 32% | 2.98 |
| PEC Zwolle -0.75 | 21% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model's main pick is PEC Zwolle with a +2 start at odds 1.26, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.
Who is the favourite for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model makes a Groningen win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.2 scoreline for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle.
What is the predicted score for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.03 for Groningen and 1.22 for PEC Zwolle. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Groningen and PEC Zwolle play?
Kick-off is Friday 18 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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