Fri 18 Sep2-1Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Monaco vs Lens Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monaco vs Lens in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 18 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Monaco 2-1 Lens

Monaco vs Lens finished 2-1. Monaco won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Lens Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.31, landed.

Monaco face Lens in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 18 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Monaco have 3 wins from their last 4, while Lens have 1 win from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Monaco won 2, Lens won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.6-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monaco vs Lens with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lens Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.31

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.59 – 1.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.7%	6.9%	5.0%	2.5%	0.9%
1	7.5%	11.0%	8.0%	3.9%	1.4%
2	6.0%	8.7%	6.4%	3.1%	1.1%
3	3.2%	4.6%	3.4%	1.6%	0.6%
4	1.3%	1.8%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Monaco winDrawLens win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Monaco vs Lens comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lens Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Monaco win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Monaco 43%Draw 22%Lens 35%

43%22%35%

43%

Monaco Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Monaco and Lens. Wins shown from Monaco’s perspective: Monaco 2 · 1 drawn · Lens 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-18	Monaco	2 – 1	Lens	W
2026-02-21	Lens	2 – 3	Monaco	W
2025-11-08	Monaco	1 – 4	Lens	L
2025-05-17	Lens	4 – 0	Monaco	L
2024-09-01	Monaco	1 – 1	Lens	D

📈 Recent form

Monaco

Monaco come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Gornik Zabrze. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DStrasbourg 1-1 MonacoLigue 1
WParis Saint-Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
WMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
WMonaco 4-1 Gornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa Conference

Lens

Lens come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Slavia Praha. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Monaco.

LMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DLe Mans 2-2 LensLigue 1
WSlavia Praha 2-3 LensUEFA Champions League
LLens 0-1 LorientLigue 1
LStrasbourg 2-1 LensLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Monaco

M. CoulibalyMuscle Injury
A. FatiCalf Injury
S. IdumboGroin Injury
A. SoubeirInjury
J. TezeInjury
F. BalogunInjury
T. MinaminoLacking Match Fitness

Lens

S. AbdulhamidContusion
S. BaidooKnee Injury
J. ChavezThigh Injury
M. NawrockiInjury
Y. TitraouiInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Monaco at 43% to win and Lens at 35%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco Win	43%	48%	@ 2.00
Lens Win	35%	27%	@ 3.50
Draw	22%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Monaco or Draw at 1.30 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco or Draw	67%	73%	@ 1.30
Lens or Draw	59%	52%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	64%	59%	@ 1.62
Over 2.5	59%	62%	@ 1.53
Under 2.5	41%	38%	@ 2.50
Over 3.5	36%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	19%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	39%	35%	@ 2.62

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Monaco or Lens is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens +2	87%	84%	1.12
Monaco +1.5	86%	86%	1.10
Lens +1.75	84%	78%	@ 1.21
Monaco +1.25	81%	85%	1.12
Lens +1.5	81%	73%	@ 1.31
Monaco +1	77%	84%	1.13
Lens +1.25	76%	70%	@ 1.35
Monaco +0.75	72%	77%	1.24
Lens +1	70%	67%	@ 1.43
Monaco +0.5	67%	71%	1.33
Lens +0.75	65%	59%	@ 1.62
Monaco +0.25	60%	68%	1.41
Lens +0.5	59%	53%	@ 1.83
Monaco 0	54%	62%	1.53
Lens +0.25	53%	47%	@ 2.06
Monaco -0.25	47%	53%	1.80
Lens 0	46%	38%	@ 2.52
Monaco -0.5	41%	47%	2.06
Lens -0.25	40%	32%	@ 2.98
Monaco -0.75	35%	41%	2.33
Lens -0.5	33%	29%	@ 3.33
Monaco -1	30%	33%	2.85
Lens -0.75	28%	23%	@ 4.22
Monaco -1.25	24%	30%	3.20
Lens -1	23%	16%	@ 5.90
Monaco -1.5	19%	27%	3.51
Lens -1.25	19%	15%	@ 6.40
Monaco -1.75	16%	22%	4.25
Lens -1.5	14%	14%	6.80
Monaco -2	13%	16%	6.00

📈 How the market moved

Monaco 47%Draw 25%Lens 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Monaco vs Lens?

Our model's main pick is Lens Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Lens?

Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.5 scoreline for Monaco vs Lens.

What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Lens?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.59 for Monaco and 1.46 for Lens. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Monaco and Lens play?

Kick-off is Friday 18 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.