Fri 18 Sep2-1Finished

⚽ Serie A

Monza vs Sassuolo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monza vs Sassuolo in the Serie A. Kick-off Friday 18 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Monza 2-1 Sassuolo

Monza vs Sassuolo finished 2-1. Monza won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Sassuolo Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at 1.30, was a half-loss.

Monza face Sassuolo in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Friday 18 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Monza have 0 wins from their last 3, while Sassuolo have 1 win from their last 3. In their last 3 meetings, Monza won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sassuolo win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.3-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monza vs Sassuolo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Sassuolo Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 1.30

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.29 – 1.79 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	8.2%	7.4%	4.4%	2.0%
1	5.9%	10.6%	9.5%	5.7%	2.5%
2	3.8%	6.8%	6.1%	3.7%	1.6%
3	1.6%	2.9%	2.6%	1.6%	0.7%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Monza winDrawSassuolo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Monza vs Sassuolo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sassuolo Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Sassuolo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Monza 22%Draw 26%Sassuolo 52%

22%26%52%

52%

Sassuolo Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Monza and Sassuolo. Wins shown from Monza’s perspective: Monza 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-18	Monza	2 – 1	Sassuolo	W
2024-01-28	Monza	1 – 0	Sassuolo	W
2023-10-02	Sassuolo	0 – 1	Monza	W

📈 Recent form

Monza

Monza come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Sassuolo. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Lecce.

WMonza 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
LLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
WTorino 0-1 MonzaCoppa Italia
LMonza 2-3 UdineseSerie A

Sassuolo

Sassuolo come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Juventus. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Monza.

LMonza 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
WSassuolo 3-2 JuventusSerie A
DBologna 2-2 SassuoloSerie A
DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
WSassuolo 2-1 TorinoSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Monza

P. CiurriaNot in squad
M. PessinaKnee Injury
I. ToureContusion
J. ZiolkowskiFoot Injury

Sassuolo

D. BolocaMuscle Injury
F. CandeKnee Injury
J. IdzesMuscle Injury
I. KoneBroken Leg
Y. PazKnee Injury
E. PieragnoloKnee Injury
C. VolpatoThigh Injury
S. WalukiewiczMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Monza at 22% to win and Sassuolo at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Sassuolo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sassuolo Win	52%	39%	@ 2.40
Draw	26%	28%	@ 3.40
Monza Win	22%	33%	@ 2.88

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sassuolo or Draw at 1.40 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sassuolo or Draw	77%	67%	@ 1.40
Monza or Draw	48%	61%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	63%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 2.5	59%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	41%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	37%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	19%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	41%	42%	@ 2.20

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Monza or Sassuolo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sassuolo +1.5	92%	83%	@ 1.14
Sassuolo +1.25	88%	83%	@ 1.15
Sassuolo +1	84%	81%	1.19
Sassuolo +0.75	81%	73%	@ 1.30
Sassuolo +0.5	77%	67%	@ 1.43
Monza +1.75	76%	84%	1.13
Monza +1.5	72%	79%	1.19
Sassuolo +0.25	71%	62%	@ 1.54
Monza +1.25	66%	78%	1.23
Sassuolo 0	65%	55%	@ 1.75
Monza +1	60%	75%	1.27
Sassuolo -0.25	59%	46%	@ 2.08
Monza +0.75	54%	67%	1.43
Sassuolo -0.5	52%	40%	@ 2.40
Monza +0.5	48%	60%	1.59
Sassuolo -0.75	46%	33%	@ 2.85
Monza +0.25	41%	54%	1.80
Sassuolo -1	40%	25%	@ 3.83
Monza 0	35%	45%	2.12
Sassuolo -1.25	34%	22%	@ 4.28
Monza -0.25	29%	38%	2.48
Sassuolo -1.5	28%	21%	@ 4.50
Sassuolo -1.75	24%	16%	@ 5.90
Monza -0.5	23%	33%	2.85
Monza -0.75	19%	27%	3.56
Monza -1	16%	19%	4.94
Monza -1.25	12%	17%	5.50
Monza -1.5	8%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Monza 33%Draw 28%Sassuolo 39%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Monza vs Sassuolo?

Our model's main pick is Sassuolo Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 77%.

Who is the favourite for Monza vs Sassuolo?

Our model makes a Sassuolo win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.8 scoreline for Monza vs Sassuolo.

What is the predicted score for Monza vs Sassuolo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.29 for Monza and 1.79 for Sassuolo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Monza and Sassuolo play?

Kick-off is Friday 18 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.