Sat 19 Sep0-1Finished

⚽ Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund finished 0-1. Borussia Dortmund won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 1.62, landed.

VfB Stuttgart face Borussia Dortmund in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: VfB Stuttgart have 2 wins from their last 5, while Borussia Dortmund have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 2, Borussia Dortmund won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.7-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Borussia Dortmund +1.25 @ 1.26

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.74 – 1.71 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	5.4%	4.6%	2.6%	1.1%
1	5.5%	9.4%	8.1%	4.6%	2.0%
2	4.8%	8.2%	7.0%	4.0%	1.7%
3	2.8%	4.8%	4.1%	2.3%	1.0%
4	1.2%	2.1%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

VfB Stuttgart winDrawBorussia Dortmund win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Borussia Dortmund with a +1.25 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (67%).

📊 Key numbers

VfB Stuttgart 36%Draw 23%Borussia Dortmund 41%

36%23%41%

41%

Borussia Dortmund Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund. Wins shown from VfB Stuttgart’s perspective: VfB Stuttgart 2 · 1 drawn · Borussia Dortmund 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	VfB Stuttgart	0 – 1	Borussia Dortmund	L
2026-04-04	VfB Stuttgart	0 – 2	Borussia Dortmund	L
2025-11-22	Borussia Dortmund	3 – 3	VfB Stuttgart	D
2025-02-08	Borussia Dortmund	1 – 2	VfB Stuttgart	W
2024-09-22	VfB Stuttgart	5 – 1	Borussia Dortmund	W

📈 Recent form

VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to 1. FC Köln. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Borussia Dortmund.

LVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
LHoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
WVfB Stuttgart 3-1 VikingUEFA Champions League
WVfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
LBayern Munich 5-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at HEBC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
WBorussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
WBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
WHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
WHEBC 0-5 Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

VfB Stuttgart

L. AssignonShoulder Injury
J. DiehlMuscle Injury
M. HerwerthInjury
L. JaquezMuscle Injury
D. SeimenThigh Injury
T. TomasMuscle Injury
D. ZagadouMuscle Injury

Borussia Dortmund

E. CanKnee Injury
M. KabaInjury
G. KonstanteliasKnee Injury
J. LermaMuscle Injury
F. ManeMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices VfB Stuttgart at 36% to win and Borussia Dortmund at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Borussia Dortmund Win	41%	35%	@ 2.75
VfB Stuttgart Win	36%	40%	@ 2.40
Draw	23%	25%	@ 3.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 1.53 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Borussia Dortmund or Draw	65%	60%	@ 1.53
VfB Stuttgart or Draw	61%	65%	@ 1.44

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	67%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 3.5	55%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 3.5	45%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	33%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	14%	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	67%	69%	@ 1.36
BTTS No	33%	31%	@ 3.00

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Borussia Dortmund +2	90%	86%	1.10
Borussia Dortmund +1.75	88%	83%	@ 1.15
VfB Stuttgart +1.75	85%	85%	1.12
Borussia Dortmund +1.5	85%	77%	@ 1.22
VfB Stuttgart +1.5	82%	80%	1.18
Borussia Dortmund +1.25	80%	75%	@ 1.26
VfB Stuttgart +1.25	77%	79%	1.20
Borussia Dortmund +1	75%	73%	1.30
VfB Stuttgart +1	72%	77%	1.24
Borussia Dortmund +0.75	70%	66%	@ 1.44
VfB Stuttgart +0.75	66%	70%	1.35
Borussia Dortmund +0.5	65%	60%	@ 1.59
VfB Stuttgart +0.5	61%	65%	1.48
Borussia Dortmund +0.25	59%	55%	@ 1.75
VfB Stuttgart +0.25	55%	60%	1.60
Borussia Dortmund 0	52%	47%	@ 2.04
VfB Stuttgart 0	48%	53%	1.83
Borussia Dortmund -0.25	45%	40%	@ 2.38
VfB Stuttgart -0.25	41%	45%	2.12
Borussia Dortmund -0.5	39%	35%	@ 2.71
VfB Stuttgart -0.5	35%	40%	2.40
Borussia Dortmund -0.75	34%	30%	@ 3.20
VfB Stuttgart -0.75	30%	34%	2.81
Borussia Dortmund -1	28%	23%	@ 4.24
VfB Stuttgart -1	25%	27%	3.54
Borussia Dortmund -1.25	23%	21%	@ 4.40
VfB Stuttgart -1.25	20%	25%	3.87
Borussia Dortmund -1.5	18%	20%	4.80
VfB Stuttgart -1.5	15%	23%	4.15
Borussia Dortmund -1.75	15%	15%	6.25
VfB Stuttgart -1.75	12%	17%	5.50
VfB Stuttgart -2	10%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

VfB Stuttgart 40%Draw 26%Borussia Dortmund 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our model's main pick is Borussia Dortmund with a +1.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.7 scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund.

What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.74 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.71 for Borussia Dortmund. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.