⚽ Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Le Havre Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toulouse vs Le Havre in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre
Toulouse vs Le Havre finished 3-2. Toulouse won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.33, did not land.
Toulouse face Le Havre in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Toulouse have 0 wins from their last 4, while Le Havre have 0 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 3, Le Havre won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Toulouse win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toulouse vs Le Havre with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 12.7% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Le Havre with a +1.75 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Toulouse win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toulouse and Le Havre. Wins shown from Toulouse’s perspective: Toulouse 3 · 1 drawn · Le Havre 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Toulouse | 3 – 2 | Le Havre | W |
| 2026-02-15 | Le Havre | 2 – 1 | Toulouse | L |
| 2025-11-02 | Toulouse | 0 – 0 | Le Havre | D |
| 2025-02-23 | Le Havre | 1 – 4 | Toulouse | W |
| 2024-09-15 | Toulouse | 2 – 0 | Le Havre | W |
📈 Recent form
Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Le Havre. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Lille.
- WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
- DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
- LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
- DBrest 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
- LToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1
Le Havre come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Toulouse.
- LToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
- DLe Havre 0-0 AngersLigue 1
- LLe Havre 1-2 BrestLigue 1
- DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1
- LLe Havre 0-1 MonacoLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. FrancisMuscle Injury
- R. NicolaisenCalf Injury
- P. ArgneyInjury
- F. MambimbiInjury
- L. Mpasi-NzauInjury
- T. PembeleNot in squad
- A. ToureKnee Injury
- S. ZagadouInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toulouse at 42% to win and Le Havre at 26%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Toulouse win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Win | 42% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Draw | 33% | 25% | @ 3.90 |
| Le Havre Win | 26% | 20% | @ 4.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toulouse or Draw at 1.18 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse or Draw | 71% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Le Havre or Draw | 55% | 45% | @ 2.05 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 76% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Under 1.5 | 29% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toulouse or Le Havre is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre +2 | 84% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Le Havre +1.75 | 81% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Le Havre +1.5 | 78% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| Toulouse +0.75 | 75% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Le Havre +1.25 | 72% | 63% | @ 1.52 |
| Toulouse +0.5 | 71% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Le Havre +1 | 66% | 57% | @ 1.68 |
| Toulouse +0.25 | 65% | 77% | 1.25 |
| Le Havre +0.75 | 60% | 49% | @ 1.97 |
| Toulouse 0 | 58% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Le Havre +0.5 | 55% | 44% | @ 2.17 |
| Toulouse -0.25 | 52% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Le Havre +0.25 | 48% | 37% | @ 2.60 |
| Toulouse -0.5 | 45% | 56% | 1.71 |
| Le Havre 0 | 42% | 27% | @ 3.57 |
| Toulouse -0.75 | 40% | 51% | 1.91 |
| Le Havre -0.25 | 35% | 23% | @ 4.06 |
| Toulouse -1 | 34% | 43% | 2.23 |
| Le Havre -0.5 | 29% | 22% | @ 4.42 |
| Toulouse -1.25 | 28% | 37% | 2.56 |
| Le Havre -0.75 | 25% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Toulouse -1.5 | 22% | 33% | 2.90 |
| Toulouse -1.75 | 19% | 27% | 3.54 |
| Toulouse -2 | 16% | 20% | 4.65 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our model's main pick is Le Havre with a +1.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our model makes a Toulouse win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Toulouse vs Le Havre.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.38 for Toulouse and 1.12 for Le Havre. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toulouse and Le Havre play?
Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Seattle Soundersvs
Real Salt LakeMajor League SoccerThu 24 Sep01:30
Gironavs
AlbaceteSegunda DivisiónFri 25 Sep18:30
New York Red Bullsvs
St. Louis CityMajor League SoccerSat 26 Sep23:30
Tenerifevs
CadizSegunda DivisiónSat 26 Sep16:30
Philadelphia Unionvs
Orlando City SCMajor League SoccerSat 26 Sep23:30
CF Montrealvs
FC CincinnatiMajor League SoccerSat 26 Sep23:30Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.