Sat 19 Sep5-0Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Vasco da Gama 5-0 Coritiba

Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba finished 5-0. Vasco da Gama won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.33, landed.

Vasco da Gama face Coritiba in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Vasco da Gama have 2 wins from their last 5, while Coritiba have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Vasco da Gama won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.6-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Coritiba +1.75 @ 1.39

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.55 – 1.51 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.7%	7.1%	5.3%	2.7%	1.0%
1	7.3%	11.0%	8.3%	4.2%	1.6%
2	5.6%	8.5%	6.4%	3.2%	1.2%
3	2.9%	4.4%	3.3%	1.7%	0.6%
4	1.1%	1.7%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Vasco da Gama winDrawCoritiba win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Coritiba with a +1.75 start at odds 1.39, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Vasco da Gama win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Vasco da Gama 42%Draw 29%Coritiba 30%

42%29%30%

42%

Vasco da Gama Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Vasco da Gama and Coritiba. Wins shown from Vasco da Gama’s perspective: Vasco da Gama 2 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	Vasco da Gama	5 – 0	Coritiba	W
2026-04-01	Coritiba	1 – 1	Vasco da Gama	D
2023-09-21	Vasco da Gama	5 – 1	Coritiba	W
2023-05-11	Coritiba	1 – 1	Vasco da Gama	D

📈 Recent form

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Fluminense.

WVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WVasco da Gama 2-0 Santa FeCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
DSanta Fe 0-0 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

Coritiba

Coritiba come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Remo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Vasco da Gama.

LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
WRemo 2-3 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vasco da Gama

BrennerKnee Injury
Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
Tche TcheSuspended (cards)

Coritiba

Breno LopesSuspended (red card)
JacyNot in squad
Joao Pedro ChermontNot in squad
KenoNot in squad
Lucas RonierKnee Injury
B. OcampoInjury
TingaMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vasco da Gama at 42% to win and Coritiba at 30%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vasco da Gama Win	42%	62%	@ 1.55
Coritiba Win	30%	14%	@ 7.00
Draw	29%	25%	@ 3.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.10 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vasco da Gama or Draw	69%	86%	@ 1.10
Coritiba or Draw	57%	38%	@ 2.38

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	63%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	59%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 2.5	41%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	37%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	19%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS No	39%	52%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vasco da Gama or Coritiba is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Coritiba +2	86%	76%	@ 1.25
Coritiba +1.75	82%	69%	@ 1.39
Coritiba +1.5	79%	62%	@ 1.54
Coritiba +1.25	74%	57%	@ 1.68
Vasco da Gama +0.75	74%	85%	1.12
Vasco da Gama +0.5	69%	84%	1.12
Coritiba +1	68%	48%	@ 2.00
Vasco da Gama +0.25	63%	–	1.18
Coritiba +0.75	62%	43%	@ 2.23
Coritiba +0.5	57%	38%	@ 2.53
Vasco da Gama 0	56%	–	1.18
Coritiba +0.25	50%	30%	@ 3.23
Vasco da Gama -0.25	50%	70%	1.35
Vasco da Gama -0.5	43%	62%	1.52
Vasco da Gama -0.75	38%	57%	1.67
Vasco da Gama -1	32%	52%	1.87
Coritiba -0.5	31%	16%	@ 6.00
Vasco da Gama -1.25	26%	43%	2.20
Coritiba -0.75	26%	15%	@ 6.40
Vasco da Gama -1.5	21%	38%	2.47
Vasco da Gama -1.75	18%	31%	3.03
Vasco da Gama -2	14%	24%	4.04

📈 How the market moved

Vasco da Gama 62%Draw 24%Coritiba 15%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

Our model's main pick is Coritiba with a +1.75 start at odds 1.39, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

Our model makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.5 scoreline for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba.

What is the predicted score for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.55 for Vasco da Gama and 1.51 for Coritiba. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vasco da Gama and Coritiba play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.