⚽ Major League Soccer
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Result: St. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FC
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC finished 3-1. St. Louis City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.50, landed.
St. Louis City face Toronto FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: St. Louis City have 3 wins from their last 5, while Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, St. Louis City won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 2.1-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Toronto FC with a +2 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a St. Louis City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (62%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between St. Louis City and Toronto FC. Wins shown from St. Louis City’s perspective: St. Louis City 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | St. Louis City | 3 – 1 | Toronto FC | W |
| 2023-07-08 | Toronto FC | 0 – 1 | St. Louis City | W |
📈 Recent form
St. Louis City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Colorado Rapids. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WColorado Rapids 0-3 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- WSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WVancouver Whitecaps 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Nashville SC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at St. Louis City.
- LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- D. MihailovicMuscle Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices St. Louis City at 51% to win and Toronto FC at 24%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win | 51% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| Toronto FC Win | 24% | 20% | @ 4.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is St. Louis City or Draw at 1.17 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City or Draw | 76% | 80% | @ 1.17 |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 49% | 44% | @ 2.20 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Under 3.5 | 54% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 38% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when St. Louis City or Toronto FC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC +2 | 81% | 76% | @ 1.26 |
| St. Louis City +0.75 | 80% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Toronto FC +1.75 | 77% | – | @ 1.38 |
| St. Louis City +0.5 | 76% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Toronto FC +1.5 | 73% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| St. Louis City +0.25 | 70% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Toronto FC +1.25 | 67% | 59% | @ 1.62 |
| St. Louis City 0 | 63% | 75% | 1.28 |
| Toronto FC +1 | 61% | 54% | @ 1.78 |
| St. Louis City -0.25 | 57% | 65% | 1.47 |
| Toronto FC +0.75 | 55% | 47% | @ 2.05 |
| St. Louis City -0.5 | 51% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Toronto FC +0.5 | 49% | 42% | @ 2.28 |
| St. Louis City -0.75 | 45% | 53% | 1.80 |
| Toronto FC +0.25 | 43% | 35% | @ 2.73 |
| St. Louis City -1 | 39% | 46% | 2.08 |
| Toronto FC 0 | 37% | 25% | @ 3.74 |
| St. Louis City -1.25 | 33% | 41% | 2.33 |
| Toronto FC -0.25 | 31% | 23% | @ 4.24 |
| St. Louis City -1.5 | 27% | 37% | 2.58 |
| Toronto FC -0.5 | 24% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Toronto FC -0.75 | 20% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| St. Louis City -2 | 19% | 24% | 3.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
Our model's main pick is Toronto FC with a +2 start at odds 1.26, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
Our model makes a St. Louis City win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 2.1-1.4 scoreline for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC.
What is the predicted score for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.12 for St. Louis City and 1.36 for Toronto FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do St. Louis City and Toronto FC play?
Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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