⚽ Serie A
Fiorentina vs Napoli Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fiorentina vs Napoli in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Result: Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli
Fiorentina vs Napoli finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.28, landed.
Fiorentina face Napoli in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 10:30 UTC. Recent form: Fiorentina have 1 win from their last 4, while Napoli have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.1-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fiorentina vs Napoli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Napoli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Napoli with a +0.75 start at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Fiorentina and Napoli. Wins shown from Fiorentina’s perspective: 1 drawn · Napoli 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Fiorentina | 1 – 1 | Napoli | D |
| 2026-01-31 | Napoli | 2 – 1 | Fiorentina | L |
| 2025-09-13 | Fiorentina | 1 – 3 | Napoli | L |
| 2025-03-09 | Napoli | 2 – 1 | Fiorentina | L |
| 2025-01-04 | Fiorentina | 0 – 3 | Napoli | L |
📈 Recent form
Fiorentina come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Pisa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Torino.
- DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
- WFiorentina 3-0 PisaCoppa Italia
- WVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
- LFiorentina 1-2 TorinoSerie A
- LFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A
Napoli come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.
- DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
- WNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
- LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A
- LNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- F. ParisiKnee Injury
- R. SottilBack Injury
- Alisson SantosMuscle Injury
- A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
- GiovaneGroin Injury
- L. MarianucciKnee Injury
- S. McTominayHeart Problems
- A. MeretMuscle Injury
- L. SpinazzolaMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Fiorentina at 26% to win and Napoli at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli Win | 44% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Fiorentina Win | 26% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Napoli or Draw at 1.33 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli or Draw | 72% | 70% | @ 1.33 |
| Fiorentina or Draw | 54% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 | 73% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fiorentina or Napoli is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli +1.5 | 89% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Napoli +1.25 | 85% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Fiorentina +1.75 | 80% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Napoli +1 | 80% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Fiorentina +1.5 | 77% | 77% | 1.22 |
| Napoli +0.75 | 76% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Napoli +0.5 | 72% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Fiorentina +1.25 | 71% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Fiorentina +1 | 66% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Napoli +0.25 | 65% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Fiorentina +0.75 | 60% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Napoli 0 | 59% | 59% | 1.63 |
| Fiorentina +0.5 | 54% | 57% | 1.68 |
| Napoli -0.25 | 52% | 49% | @ 1.97 |
| Fiorentina +0.25 | 48% | 51% | 1.91 |
| Napoli -0.5 | 46% | 43% | @ 2.23 |
| Fiorentina 0 | 41% | 41% | 2.32 |
| Napoli -0.75 | 40% | 37% | @ 2.61 |
| Fiorentina -0.25 | 35% | 35% | 2.76 |
| Napoli -1 | 34% | 28% | @ 3.42 |
| Napoli -1.25 | 29% | 25% | @ 3.85 |
| Fiorentina -0.5 | 28% | 30% | 3.15 |
| Fiorentina -0.75 | 24% | 24% | 3.99 |
| Napoli -1.5 | 23% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Fiorentina -1 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Napoli -1.75 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Fiorentina -1.25 | 15% | 15% | 6.25 |
| Fiorentina -1.5 | 11% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our model's main pick is Napoli with a +0.75 start at odds 1.25, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline for Fiorentina vs Napoli.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.07 for Fiorentina and 1.56 for Napoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Fiorentina and Napoli play?
Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 10:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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