Sun 20 Sep1-0Finished

⚽ La Liga

Getafe vs Málaga Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Getafe vs Málaga in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Getafe 1-0 Málaga

Getafe vs Málaga finished 1-0. Getafe won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Málaga or Draw at 1.70, did not land.

Getafe face Málaga in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 12:00 UTC. Recent form: Getafe have 1 win from their last 5, while Málaga have 0 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Getafe win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.6-0.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Getafe vs Málaga with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Málaga +1.25 @ 1.28

72%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.60 – 0.54 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.8%	6.4%	1.7%	0.3%	0.0%
1	18.8%	10.2%	2.7%	0.5%	0.1%
2	15.1%	8.1%	2.2%	0.4%	0.1%
3	8.0%	4.3%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
4	3.2%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Getafe winDrawMálaga win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Getafe vs Málaga comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Málaga with a +1.25 start at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Getafe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points no (67%).

📊 Key numbers

Getafe 44%Draw 30%Málaga 26%

44%30%26%

44%

Getafe Win

64%

Under 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Getafe

Getafe come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Málaga. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Real Betis.

WGetafe 1-0 MálagaLa Liga
LReal Betis 1-0 GetafeLa Liga
DGetafe 1-1 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
DGetafe 1-1 Celta VigoLa Liga
LOsasuna 1-0 GetafeLa Liga

Málaga

Málaga come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Getafe.

LGetafe 1-0 MálagaLa Liga
LMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
DCelta Vigo 1-1 MálagaLa Liga
DMálaga 0-0 LevanteLa Liga
LReal Madrid 4-0 MálagaLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Getafe

A. AbqarMuscle Injury
JuanmiInjury
Kiko FemeniaHamstring Injury
M. MartinSuspended (red card)
C. UcheKnee Injury

Málaga

H. AbaidaNot in squad
A. AznouMuscle Injury
J. CajusteInjury
F. CaleroRibs Injury
J. LobeteKnee Injury
D. MurilloInjury
A. OchoaKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Getafe at 44% to win and Málaga at 26%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Getafe win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Getafe Win	44%	47%	@ 2.00
Draw	30%	31%	@ 3.10
Málaga Win	26%	22%	@ 4.33

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Getafe or Draw at 1.22 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Getafe or Draw	72%	78%	@ 1.22
Málaga or Draw	54%	53%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	83%	83%	@ 1.14
Under 2.5	64%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 1.5	63%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 1.5	37%	41%	@ 2.30
Over 2.5	36%	32%	@ 3.00
Over 3.5	17%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	67%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS Yes	33%	39%	@ 2.38

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Getafe or Málaga is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Málaga +1.75	81%	83%	1.15
Málaga +1.5	77%	77%	1.24
Getafe +0.75	76%	83%	1.14
Málaga +1.25	72%	74%	1.28
Getafe +0.5	72%	78%	1.24
Málaga +1	66%	70%	1.36
Getafe +0.25	65%	74%	1.28
Málaga +0.75	60%	60%	1.59
Getafe 0	59%	69%	1.40
Málaga +0.5	54%	53%	1.83
Getafe -0.25	52%	56%	1.71
Málaga +0.25	48%	44%	@ 2.18
Getafe -0.5	46%	47%	2.04
Málaga 0	41%	31%	@ 3.05
Getafe -0.75	40%	40%	2.40
Málaga -0.25	35%	26%	@ 3.65
Getafe -1	34%	30%	@ 3.21
Málaga -0.5	28%	22%	@ 4.26
Getafe -1.25	28%	26%	@ 3.71
Málaga -0.75	24%	17%	@ 5.75
Getafe -1.5	23%	23%	4.25
Getafe -1.75	19%	17%	@ 5.50

📈 How the market moved

Getafe 47%Draw 31%Málaga 22%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Getafe vs Málaga?

Our model's main pick is Málaga with a +1.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 72% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Getafe vs Málaga?

Our model makes a Getafe win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.5 scoreline for Getafe vs Málaga.

What is the predicted score for Getafe vs Málaga?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Getafe and 0.54 for Málaga. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Getafe and Málaga play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.