Sun 20 Sep2-1Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Brest Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Auxerre vs Brest in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Auxerre 2-1 Brest

Auxerre vs Brest finished 2-1. Auxerre won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.28, landed.

Auxerre face Brest in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Auxerre have 1 win from their last 4, while Brest have 1 win from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Auxerre won 3, Brest won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Auxerre win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Auxerre vs Brest with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.47 – 1.32 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	8.1%	5.4%	2.4%	0.8%
1	9.0%	11.9%	7.9%	3.5%	1.1%
2	6.6%	8.8%	5.8%	2.5%	0.8%
3	3.3%	4.3%	2.8%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.2%	1.6%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Auxerre winDrawBrest win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Auxerre vs Brest comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates an Auxerre win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Auxerre 38%Draw 31%Brest 31%

38%31%31%

38%

Auxerre Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Auxerre and Brest. Wins shown from Auxerre’s perspective: Auxerre 3 · 1 drawn · Brest 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	Auxerre	2 – 1	Brest	W
2026-03-21	Auxerre	3 – 0	Brest	W
2026-01-04	Brest	2 – 0	Auxerre	L
2025-02-14	Brest	2 – 2	Auxerre	D
2024-09-27	Auxerre	3 – 0	Brest	W

📈 Recent form

Auxerre

Auxerre come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Brest. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Lyon.

WAuxerre 2-1 BrestLigue 1
WAuxerre 1-0 NiceLigue 1
LLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
LAuxerre 1-3 AngersLigue 1
LLens 5-2 AuxerreLigue 1

Brest

Brest come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Le Havre. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Auxerre.

LAuxerre 2-1 BrestLigue 1
LBrest 0-1 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
WLe Havre 1-2 BrestLigue 1
DBrest 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
DLe Mans 2-2 BrestLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Auxerre

A. DiousseKnee Injury
B. OkohKnee Injury
M. SenayaInjury
T. SiweMuscle Injury

Brest

R. CagnonShoulder Injury
B. ChardonnetCalf Injury
M. DiambouAnkle Injury
N. EdjoumaMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Auxerre at 38% to win and Brest at 31%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes an Auxerre win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Auxerre Win	38%	33%	@ 2.90
Brest Win	31%	40%	@ 2.38
Draw	31%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Auxerre or Draw at 1.53 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Auxerre or Draw	66%	60%	@ 1.53
Brest or Draw	60%	67%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	69%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 2.5	53%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	47%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	31%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	23%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	44%	42%	@ 2.20

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Auxerre or Brest is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Auxerre +1.75	88%	84%	1.13
Auxerre +1.5	86%	79%	@ 1.20
Brest +1.5	82%	84%	1.13
Auxerre +1.25	81%	76%	1.23
Brest +1.25	76%	83%	1.15
Auxerre +1	76%	–	1.27
Auxerre +0.75	71%	67%	@ 1.43
Brest +1	71%	81%	1.19
Auxerre +0.5	66%	60%	@ 1.60
Brest +0.75	65%	73%	1.31
Brest +0.5	60%	67%	1.43
Auxerre +0.25	60%	54%	@ 1.78
Brest +0.25	53%	61%	1.55
Auxerre 0	53%	45%	@ 2.12
Brest 0	47%	55%	1.75
Auxerre -0.25	47%	39%	@ 2.47
Brest -0.25	40%	46%	2.12
Auxerre -0.5	40%	33%	@ 2.88
Auxerre -0.75	35%	27%	@ 3.52
Brest -0.5	34%	40%	2.38
Auxerre -1	29%	19%	@ 5.03
Brest -0.75	29%	33%	2.85
Auxerre -1.25	24%	17%	@ 5.50
Brest -1.25	19%	24%	4.00
Auxerre -1.5	18%	16%	@ 5.90
Brest -1.5	14%	21%	4.40
Brest -1.75	12%	16%	5.90

📈 How the market moved

Auxerre 33%Draw 27%Brest 40%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Auxerre vs Brest?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Brest?

Our model makes an Auxerre win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for Auxerre vs Brest.

What is the predicted score for Auxerre vs Brest?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.47 for Auxerre and 1.32 for Brest. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Auxerre and Brest play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.