Sun 20 Sep3-0Finished

⚽ Serie A

AC Milan vs Lecce Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AC Milan vs Lecce in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: AC Milan 3-0 Lecce

AC Milan vs Lecce finished 3-0. AC Milan won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, AC Milan Asian Handicap to win by 1+ goals at 1.30, landed.

AC Milan face Lecce in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: AC Milan have 2 wins from their last 4, while Lecce have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, AC Milan won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 1.6-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AC Milan vs Lecce with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

AC Milan Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 77%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.60 – 0.75 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	7.2%	2.7%	0.7%	0.1%
1	15.3%	11.4%	4.3%	1.1%	0.2%
2	12.2%	9.2%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%
3	6.5%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
4	2.6%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

AC Milan winDrawLecce win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Lecce comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is AC Milan Asian Handicap to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 73%. On the match result, the model rates an AC Milan win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (58%).

📊 Key numbers

AC Milan 62%Draw 23%Lecce 14%

62%23%14%

62%

AC Milan Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between AC Milan and Lecce. Wins shown from AC Milan’s perspective: AC Milan 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	AC Milan	3 – 0	Lecce	W
2026-01-18	AC Milan	1 – 0	Lecce	W
2025-08-29	Lecce	0 – 2	AC Milan	W
2025-03-08	Lecce	2 – 3	AC Milan	W
2024-09-27	AC Milan	3 – 0	Lecce	W

📈 Recent form

AC Milan

AC Milan come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Lecce. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Benfica.

WAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
LAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
DLazio 2-2 AC MilanSerie A
DJuventus 1-1 AC MilanSerie A
WAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A

Lecce

Lecce come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at AC Milan.

LAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
WLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
LCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
LLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
WVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AC Milan

No absentees reported.

Lecce

M. BerishaLacking Match Fitness
O. GandelmanNot in squad
W. GeubbelsAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AC Milan at 62% to win and Lecce at 14%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan Win	62%	76%	@ 1.25
Draw	23%	16%	@ 5.75
Lecce Win	14%	8%	@ 12.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AC Milan or Draw at 1.05 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan or Draw	84%	92%	@ 1.05
Lecce or Draw	37%	24%	@ 3.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	64%	@ 1.50
Over 1.5	68%	79%	@ 1.20
Under 2.5	58%	41%	@ 2.30
Over 2.5	42%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 1.5	32%	21%	@ 4.50
Over 3.5	21%	36%	@ 2.62

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	58%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS Yes	42%	42%	@ 2.20

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when AC Milan or Lecce is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lecce +2	71%	59%	@ 1.61
AC Milan -0.25	68%	82%	1.16
Lecce +1.75	66%	52%	@ 1.86
AC Milan -0.5	63%	75%	1.25
Lecce +1.5	62%	46%	@ 2.08
AC Milan -0.75	57%	73%	1.30
Lecce +1.25	55%	39%	@ 2.44
AC Milan -1	51%	69%	1.38
Lecce +1	49%	31%	@ 3.11
AC Milan -1.25	45%	61%	1.56
Lecce +0.75	43%	27%	@ 3.56
AC Milan -1.5	39%	54%	1.76
Lecce +0.5	37%	25%	@ 3.80
AC Milan -1.75	34%	48%	2.00
Lecce +0.25	32%	18%	@ 5.25
AC Milan -2	29%	41%	2.34

📈 How the market moved

AC Milan 76%Draw 16%Lecce 8%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AC Milan vs Lecce?

Our model's main pick is AC Milan Asian Handicap to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 77%.

Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Lecce?

Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.8 scoreline for AC Milan vs Lecce.

What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Lecce?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.60 for AC Milan and 0.75 for Lecce. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AC Milan and Lecce play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.