⚽ Ligue 1
Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain finished 1-2. Paris Saint-Germain won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.40, landed.
Marseille face Paris Saint-Germain in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Marseille have 1 win from their last 4, while Paris Saint-Germain have 1 win from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Marseille won 1, Paris Saint-Germain won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.4-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Marseille with a +2 start at odds 1.50, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (65%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain. Wins shown from Marseille’s perspective: Marseille 1 · Paris Saint-Germain 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Marseille | 1 – 2 | Paris Saint-Germain | L |
| 2026-02-08 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 – 0 | Marseille | L |
| 2025-09-22 | Marseille | 1 – 0 | Paris Saint-Germain | W |
| 2025-03-16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 – 1 | Marseille | L |
| 2024-10-27 | Marseille | 0 – 3 | Paris Saint-Germain | L |
📈 Recent form
Marseille come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain.
- LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
- LRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
- LMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
- LMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
Paris Saint-Germain come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at home to Slovan Bratislava. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Monaco.
- WMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- WBrest 0-1 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- WParis Saint-Germain 6-1 Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League
- LParis Saint-Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
- DLille 2-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- G. KondogbiaInjury
- T. NnadiInjury
- A. HakimiThigh Injury
- Q. NdjantouNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Marseille at 25% to win and Paris Saint-Germain at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain Win | 47% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Draw | 27% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Marseille Win | 25% | 13% | @ 7.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.10 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain or Draw | 74% | 87% | @ 1.10 |
| Marseille or Draw | 52% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 35% | 41% | @ 2.25 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Marseille or Paris Saint-Germain is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille +2 | 82% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Marseille +1.75 | 79% | 57% | @ 1.69 |
| Marseille +1.5 | 75% | 51% | @ 1.89 |
| Paris Saint-Germain +0.5 | 74% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Marseille +1.25 | 69% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Paris Saint-Germain +0.25 | 67% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Marseille +1 | 63% | 38% | @ 2.49 |
| Paris Saint-Germain 0 | 61% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Marseille +0.75 | 57% | 34% | @ 2.83 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.25 | 55% | 75% | 1.25 |
| Marseille +0.5 | 52% | 30% | @ 3.17 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.5 | 48% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Marseille +0.25 | 45% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.75 | 43% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Marseille 0 | 39% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1 | 37% | 62% | 1.54 |
| Marseille -0.25 | 33% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.25 | 31% | 55% | 1.75 |
| Marseille -0.5 | 26% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.5 | 25% | 49% | 2.00 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.75 | 21% | 43% | 2.21 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -2 | 18% | 36% | 2.62 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model's main pick is Marseille with a +2 start at odds 1.50, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.
Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.4-2.0 scoreline for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for Marseille and 1.97 for Paris Saint-Germain. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain play?
Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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