Sun 20 Sep2-3Finished

⚽ La Liga

Valencia vs Real Sociedad Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Valencia vs Real Sociedad in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad

Valencia vs Real Sociedad finished 2-3. Real Sociedad won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.33, did not land.

Valencia face Real Sociedad in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Valencia have 0 wins from their last 5, while Real Sociedad have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Valencia won 2, Real Sociedad won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Valencia win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Valencia vs Real Sociedad with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.34 – 1.22 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	9.4%	5.8%	2.3%	0.7%
1	10.4%	12.6%	7.7%	3.1%	1.0%
2	6.9%	8.5%	5.2%	2.1%	0.6%
3	3.1%	3.8%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Valencia winDrawReal Sociedad win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Valencia vs Real Sociedad comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Valencia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Valencia 37%Draw 30%Real Sociedad 33%

37%30%33%

37%

Valencia Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Valencia and Real Sociedad. Wins shown from Valencia’s perspective: Valencia 2 · 1 drawn · Real Sociedad 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	Valencia	2 – 3	Real Sociedad	L
2026-05-17	Real Sociedad	3 – 4	Valencia	W
2025-08-16	Valencia	1 – 1	Real Sociedad	D
2025-01-19	Valencia	1 – 0	Real Sociedad	W
2024-09-28	Real Sociedad	3 – 0	Valencia	L

📈 Recent form

Valencia

Valencia come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Alavés. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Real Sociedad.

LValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
WAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LSevilla 1-0 ValenciaLa Liga
LValencia 0-5 BarcelonaLa Liga
LDeportivo La Coruña 3-1 ValenciaLa Liga

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Valencia. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bournemouth.

WValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
LReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
LReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
WElche 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
DReal Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Valencia

S. CanosKnee Injury
J. CopeteAnkle Injury
M. DiakhabyMuscle Injury
D. FoulquierInjury
D. LopezKnee Injury
U. SadiqMuscle Injury
C. TarregaHamstring Injury

Real Sociedad

A. OdriozolaKnee Injury
I. ZubeldiaInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Valencia at 37% to win and Real Sociedad at 33%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Valencia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Valencia Win	37%	35%	@ 2.70
Real Sociedad Win	33%	37%	@ 2.60
Draw	30%	28%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Valencia or Draw at 1.50 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Valencia or Draw	65%	63%	@ 1.50
Real Sociedad or Draw	61%	65%	@ 1.44

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	72%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	53%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	47%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	28%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	26%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	48%	45%	@ 2.05

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Valencia or Real Sociedad is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Valencia +1.75	87%	86%	1.10
Valencia +1.5	85%	82%	1.16
Real Sociedad +1.5	82%	83%	1.15
Valencia +1.25	80%	80%	1.18
Real Sociedad +1.25	77%	81%	1.17
Valencia +1	75%	78%	1.23
Real Sociedad +1	72%	–	1.21
Valencia +0.75	70%	70%	1.36
Real Sociedad +0.75	67%	72%	1.33
Valencia +0.5	65%	63%	1.52
Real Sociedad +0.5	61%	64%	1.49
Valencia +0.25	58%	57%	1.68
Real Sociedad +0.25	55%	59%	1.61
Valencia 0	52%	49%	@ 2.00
Real Sociedad 0	48%	51%	1.89
Valencia -0.25	45%	41%	@ 2.35
Real Sociedad -0.25	42%	43%	2.23
Valencia -0.5	39%	36%	@ 2.69
Real Sociedad -0.5	35%	37%	2.56
Valencia -0.75	33%	28%	@ 3.37
Real Sociedad -0.75	30%	30%	3.15
Real Sociedad -1	25%	22%	@ 4.32
Valencia -1.25	23%	19%	@ 5.00
Real Sociedad -1.25	20%	20%	4.65
Valencia -1.5	18%	17%	5.50
Real Sociedad -1.5	15%	18%	5.25
Real Sociedad -1.75	13%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Valencia 35%Draw 28%Real Sociedad 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

Our model makes a Valencia win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Valencia vs Real Sociedad.

What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.34 for Valencia and 1.22 for Real Sociedad. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Valencia and Real Sociedad play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.