⚽ Brazilian Série A
Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Result: Athletico Paranaense 2-1 Bahia
Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia finished 2-1. Athletico Paranaense won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.33, landed.
Athletico Paranaense face Bahia in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Athletico Paranaense have 1 win from their last 5, while Bahia have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Athletico Paranaense won 1, Bahia won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.8-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (62%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Athletico Paranaense and Bahia. Wins shown from Athletico Paranaense’s perspective: Athletico Paranaense 1 · 2 drawn · Bahia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Athletico Paranaense | 2 – 1 | Bahia | W |
| 2026-04-01 | Bahia | 3 – 0 | Athletico Paranaense | L |
| 2024-11-24 | Bahia | 1 – 1 | Athletico Paranaense | D |
| 2024-07-10 | Athletico Paranaense | 1 – 3 | Bahia | L |
| 2023-11-12 | Bahia | 1 – 1 | Athletico Paranaense | D |
📈 Recent form
Athletico Paranaense come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Bahia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Cruzeiro.
- WAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- DAthletico Paranaense 3-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- WBotafogo 2-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
Bahia come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Athletico Paranaense.
- LAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- WBahia 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A
- WRB Bragantino 2-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- WBahia 3-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- WVitória 0-2 BahiaBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- G. BenavidezNot in squad
- ClaudinhoMuscle Injury
- Joao CruzSuspended (cards)
- K. ViverosSuspended (cards)
- Leo VieiraKnee Injury
- Michel AraujoNot in squad
- C. OliveraSuspended (cards)
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Athletico Paranaense at 42% to win and Bahia at 29%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense Win | 42% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Bahia Win | 29% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Athletico Paranaense or Draw at 1.30 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense or Draw | 69% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Bahia or Draw | 57% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 51% | @ 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 49% | @ 1.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 38% | 45% | @ 2.05 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Athletico Paranaense or Bahia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense +1.25 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Bahia +1.75 | 82% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Bahia +1.5 | 79% | 76% | 1.24 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1 | 78% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.75 | 74% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Bahia +1.25 | 74% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.5 | 69% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Bahia +1 | 68% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.25 | 63% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Bahia +0.75 | 62% | 62% | 1.53 |
| Bahia +0.5 | 57% | 55% | 1.72 |
| Athletico Paranaense 0 | 56% | 62% | 1.54 |
| Bahia +0.25 | 50% | 48% | @ 2.00 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.25 | 50% | 52% | 1.86 |
| Bahia 0 | 44% | 38% | @ 2.46 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.5 | 43% | 45% | 2.13 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.75 | 38% | 38% | 2.48 |
| Bahia -0.25 | 37% | 33% | @ 2.91 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1 | 32% | 30% | @ 3.19 |
| Bahia -0.5 | 31% | 28% | @ 3.44 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.25 | 26% | 26% | 3.64 |
| Bahia -0.75 | 26% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Bahia -1 | 22% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.5 | 21% | 24% | 3.90 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.75 | 18% | 18% | 5.25 |
| Bahia -1.25 | 17% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
Our model makes an Athletico Paranaense win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline for Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia.
What is the predicted score for Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.78 for Athletico Paranaense and 1.35 for Bahia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Athletico Paranaense and Bahia play?
Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 22:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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