Sat 29 Aug1-1Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Santa Clara Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alverca vs Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Alverca 1-1 Santa Clara

Alverca vs Santa Clara finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Alverca face Santa Clara in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Alverca have no wins from their last 5, while Santa Clara have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Santa Clara won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santa Clara win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.1-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alverca vs Santa Clara with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.38

67%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.08 – 1.21 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	12.3%	7.4%	3.0%	0.9%
1	10.9%	13.2%	8.0%	3.2%	1.0%
2	5.9%	7.1%	4.3%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.1%	2.6%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Alverca winDrawSanta Clara win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alverca vs Santa Clara comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Santa Clara win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Alverca 34%Draw 32%Santa Clara 35%

34%32%35%

35%

Santa Clara Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Alverca and Santa Clara. Wins shown from Alverca’s perspective: 2 drawn · Santa Clara 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-29	Alverca	1 – 1	Santa Clara	D
2026-02-21	Alverca	1 – 1	Santa Clara	D
2025-09-20	Santa Clara	2 – 1	Alverca	L

📈 Recent form

Alverca

Alverca come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Nacional. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to SC Braga.

WAlverca 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
WNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
LAlverca 1-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
LSporting CP 3-1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga

Santa Clara

Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rio Ave.

DSanta Clara 0-0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alverca at 34% to win and Santa Clara at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santa Clara Win	35%	37%	@ 2.55
Alverca Win	34%	33%	@ 2.80
Draw	32%	30%	@ 3.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Santa Clara or Draw at 1.37 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santa Clara or Draw	64%	67%	@ 1.37
Alverca or Draw	63%	63%	@ 1.44

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	77%	@ 1.19
Over 1.5	67%	66%	@ 1.38
Under 2.5	60%	59%	@ 1.56
Over 2.5	40%	41%	@ 2.23
Under 1.5	33%	34%	@ 2.70
Over 3.5	20%	23%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	52%	@ 1.78
BTTS Yes	46%	48%	@ 1.90

📈 How the market moved

Alverca 35%Draw 31%Santa Clara 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alverca vs Santa Clara?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Alverca vs Santa Clara?

Our model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.2 scoreline for Alverca vs Santa Clara.

What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Santa Clara?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.08 for Alverca and 1.21 for Santa Clara. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alverca and Santa Clara play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.