Sun 11 Oct19:30Upcoming

⚽ Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Arouca face Estrela da Amadora in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 19:30 UTC. Recent form: Arouca have 1 win from their last 5, while Estrela da Amadora have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Arouca won 2, Estrela da Amadora won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.8-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.79 – 1.23 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.9%	6.0%	3.7%	1.5%	0.5%
1	8.7%	10.7%	6.6%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.8%	9.6%	5.9%	2.4%	0.7%
3	4.7%	5.7%	3.5%	1.4%	0.4%
4	2.1%	2.6%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Arouca winDrawEstrela da Amadora win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arouca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Arouca 51%Draw 22%Estrela da Amadora 27%

51%22%27%

51%

Arouca Win

58%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Arouca and Estrela da Amadora. Wins shown from Arouca’s perspective: Arouca 2 · 1 drawn · Estrela da Amadora 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-19	Arouca	1 – 0	Estrela da Amadora	W
2025-12-07	Estrela da Amadora	3 – 1	Arouca	L
2025-04-19	Arouca	1 – 0	Estrela da Amadora	W
2024-12-09	Estrela da Amadora	2 – 1	Arouca	L
2024-05-05	Arouca	0 – 0	Estrela da Amadora	D

📈 Recent form

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santa Clara.

DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

Estrela da Amadora

Estrela da Amadora come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to SC Braga. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Académico de Viseu.

LEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
WEstrela da Amadora 2-1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
WNacional 2-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Arouca at 51% to win and Estrela da Amadora at 27%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca Win	51%	45%	@ 2.10
Estrela da Amadora Win	27%	27%	@ 3.50
Draw	22%	28%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arouca or Draw at 1.28 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca or Draw	75%	73%	@ 1.28
Estrela da Amadora or Draw	50%	55%	@ 1.70

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	64%	71%	@ 1.33
Over 2.5	58%	50%	@ 1.90
Under 2.5	42%	50%	@ 1.90
Over 3.5	36%	29%	@ 3.25
Under 1.5	20%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	42%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 How the market moved

Arouca 45%Draw 28%Estrela da Amadora 27%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora?

Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.2 scoreline for Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora.

What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Estrela da Amadora?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.79 for Arouca and 1.23 for Estrela da Amadora. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Arouca and Estrela da Amadora play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.