Sat 29 Aug2-1Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Marítimo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arouca vs Marítimo in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Arouca 2-1 Marítimo

Arouca vs Marítimo finished 2-1. Arouca won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Arouca face Marítimo in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Arouca have 4 wins from their last 5, while Marítimo have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.5-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arouca vs Marítimo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.34

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.49 – 1.42 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.4%	7.7%	5.5%	2.6%	0.9%
1	8.1%	11.5%	8.2%	3.9%	1.4%
2	6.0%	8.6%	6.1%	2.9%	1.0%
3	3.0%	4.3%	3.0%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.1%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Arouca winDrawMarítimo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Arouca vs Marítimo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Arouca 24%Draw 42%Marítimo 34%

24%42%34%

42%

Draw

56%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santa Clara.

DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

Marítimo

Marítimo come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Moreirense.

DGil Vicente 1-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
DMarítimo 2-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Arouca at 24% to win and Marítimo at 34%, with the draw at 42%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Draw	42%	29%	@ 3.20
Marítimo Win	34%	29%	@ 3.20
Arouca Win	24%	42%	@ 2.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Marítimo or Draw at 1.57 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marítimo or Draw	68%	58%	@ 1.57
Arouca or Draw	58%	71%	@ 1.29

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	68%	@ 1.34
Under 3.5	67%	75%	@ 1.23
Over 2.5	56%	44%	@ 2.07
Under 2.5	44%	56%	@ 1.64
Over 3.5	33%	25%	@ 3.60
Under 1.5	21%	32%	@ 2.90

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	50%	@ 1.82
BTTS No	41%	50%	@ 1.85

📈 How the market moved

Arouca 43%Draw 29%Marítimo 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arouca vs Marítimo?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Marítimo?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline for Arouca vs Marítimo.

What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Marítimo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Arouca and 1.42 for Marítimo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Arouca and Marítimo play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.