vs
⚽ Primeira Liga
Arouca vs Moreirense Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arouca vs Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Arouca face Moreirense in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Arouca won 2, Moreirense won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arouca vs Moreirense with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Arouca vs Moreirense is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates an Arouca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+13.4% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Arouca and Moreirense. Wins shown from Arouca’s perspective: Arouca 2 · Moreirense 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Moreirense | 0 – 1 | Arouca | W |
| 2025-11-02 | Arouca | 0 – 2 | Moreirense | L |
| 2025-01-24 | Arouca | 1 – 0 | Moreirense | W |
| 2024-08-18 | Moreirense | 3 – 1 | Arouca | L |
| 2024-03-17 | Moreirense | 1 – 0 | Arouca | L |
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Arouca at 43% to win and Moreirense at 28%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca Win | 43% | @ 2.28 | -1.5% |
| Draw | 28% | @ 3.25 | -7.7% |
| Moreirense Win | 28% | @ 3.10 | -12.1% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arouca or Draw at 1.36 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca or Draw | 70% | @ 1.36 | -4.3% |
| Moreirense or Draw | 56% | @ 1.60 | -11.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 32% | @ 3.80 | +20.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | @ 2.10 | +13.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | @ 1.36 | +5.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | @ 1.25 | -14.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | @ 1.70 | -21.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | @ 3.10 | -30.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | @ 1.80 | +2.7% |
| BTTS No | 43% | @ 1.90 | -18.4% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 40% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 46% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 43% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.47 for the home side, 1.15 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Arouca vs Moreirense?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+13.4% value).
Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Moreirense?
Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for Arouca vs Moreirense.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Moreirense?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.54 for Arouca and 1.30 for Moreirense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Arouca and Moreirense play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.