Sun 16 Aug4-0Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Moreirense Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arouca vs Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Arouca 4-0 Moreirense

Arouca vs Moreirense finished 4-0. Arouca won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Arouca face Moreirense in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Arouca won 3, Moreirense won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arouca vs Moreirense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.53 – 1.30 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.9%	7.7%	5.0%	2.2%	0.7%
1	9.0%	11.7%	7.6%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.9%	9.0%	5.8%	2.5%	0.8%
3	3.5%	4.6%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.3%	1.8%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Arouca winDrawMoreirense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Arouca vs Moreirense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arouca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Arouca 43%Draw 28%Moreirense 28%

43%28%28%

43%

Arouca Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Arouca and Moreirense. Wins shown from Arouca’s perspective: Arouca 3 · Moreirense 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	Arouca	4 – 0	Moreirense	W
2026-03-21	Moreirense	0 – 1	Arouca	W
2025-11-02	Arouca	0 – 2	Moreirense	L
2025-01-24	Arouca	1 – 0	Moreirense	W
2024-08-18	Moreirense	3 – 1	Arouca	L

📈 Recent form

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santa Clara.

DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

Moreirense

Moreirense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Benfica.

DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Arouca at 43% to win and Moreirense at 28%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca Win	43%	44%	@ 2.10
Moreirense Win	28%	28%	@ 3.35
Draw	28%	28%	@ 3.35

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arouca or Draw at 1.27 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca or Draw	70%	72%	@ 1.27
Moreirense or Draw	56%	56%	@ 1.64

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	71%	@ 1.30
Under 3.5	68%	73%	@ 1.26
Over 2.5	54%	47%	@ 1.95
Under 2.5	46%	53%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	32%	27%	@ 3.35
Under 1.5	23%	29%	@ 3.15

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	53%	@ 1.74
BTTS No	43%	47%	@ 1.94

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Arouca or Moreirense is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca +1.5	88%	86%	1.07
Moreirense +1.75	82%	83%	1.15
Arouca +1	79%	86%	1.10
Moreirense +1.5	78%	76%	1.22
Arouca +0.75	75%	–	1.20
Moreirense +1.25	73%	74%	1.27
Arouca +0.5	70%	–	1.30
Moreirense +1	67%	71%	1.34
Arouca +0.25	64%	69%	1.38
Moreirense +0.75	61%	61%	1.55
Arouca 0	57%	63%	1.50
Moreirense +0.5	56%	54%	1.73
Arouca -0.25	51%	53%	1.81
Moreirense +0.25	49%	47%	@ 2.06
Arouca -0.5	44%	46%	2.06
Moreirense 0	43%	37%	@ 2.56
Arouca -0.75	39%	39%	2.46
Moreirense -0.25	36%	31%	@ 3.11
Arouca -1	33%	29%	@ 3.23
Arouca -1.25	27%	26%	@ 3.71
Arouca -1.5	22%	24%	3.90
Moreirense -1	21%	14%	@ 7.00
Arouca -1.75	18%	17%	@ 5.50
Moreirense -1.5	12%	14%	6.40

📈 How the market moved

Arouca 45%Draw 29%Moreirense 27%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arouca vs Moreirense?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Moreirense?

Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for Arouca vs Moreirense.

What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Moreirense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.53 for Arouca and 1.30 for Moreirense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Arouca and Moreirense play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.