Mon 31 Aug0-1Finished

⚽ Premier League

Aston Villa vs Arsenal Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aston Villa vs Arsenal in the Premier League. Kick-off Monday 31 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal

Aston Villa vs Arsenal finished 0-1. Arsenal won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Aston Villa face Arsenal in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Monday 31 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Aston Villa have 2 wins from their last 5, while Arsenal have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Aston Villa won 1, Arsenal won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 57%, projecting a 1.1-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aston Villa vs Arsenal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.41

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.09 – 1.75 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	10.2%	8.9%	5.2%	2.3%
1	6.4%	11.1%	9.8%	5.7%	2.5%
2	3.5%	6.1%	5.3%	3.1%	1.4%
3	1.3%	2.2%	1.9%	1.1%	0.5%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Aston Villa winDrawArsenal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Arsenal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.41, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arsenal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 57%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Aston Villa 20%Draw 23%Arsenal 57%

20%23%57%

57%

Arsenal Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Aston Villa and Arsenal. Wins shown from Aston Villa’s perspective: Aston Villa 1 · 1 drawn · Arsenal 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-31	Aston Villa	0 – 1	Arsenal	L
2025-12-30	Arsenal	4 – 1	Aston Villa	L
2025-12-06	Aston Villa	2 – 1	Arsenal	W
2025-01-18	Arsenal	2 – 2	Aston Villa	D
2024-08-24	Aston Villa	0 – 2	Arsenal	L

📈 Recent form

Aston Villa

Aston Villa come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Coventry. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Nottingham Forest.

WTottenham 2-3 Aston VillaPremier League
WCoventry 1-3 Aston VillaLeague Cup
LAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
WClub Brugge KV 2-3 Aston VillaUEFA Champions League
DHull City 0-0 Aston VillaPremier League

Arsenal

Arsenal come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Ipswich. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Brighton.

LBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
WIpswich 2-4 ArsenalLeague Cup
WSunderland 0-2 ArsenalPremier League
WNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
WArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Aston Villa

L. BaileyMuscle Injury
Joao GomesSuspended (red card)
B. MadjoAnkle Injury
J. ManzambiKnee Injury
A. OnanaKnee Injury

Arsenal

Gabriel JesusTransfer negotiations
G. MartinelliTransfer negotiations
W. SalibaBack Injury
J. TimberAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Aston Villa at 20% to win and Arsenal at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal Win	57%	65%	@ 1.46
Draw	23%	22%	@ 4.35
Aston Villa Win	20%	14%	@ 7.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arsenal or Draw at 1.09 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal or Draw	80%	86%	@ 1.09
Aston Villa or Draw	43%	35%	@ 2.65

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	77%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	68%	67%	@ 1.41
Over 2.5	54%	54%	@ 1.74
Under 2.5	46%	46%	@ 2.07
Over 3.5	32%	33%	@ 2.88
Under 1.5	22%	23%	@ 4.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	51%	@ 1.84
BTTS No	45%	49%	@ 1.88

📈 How the market moved

Aston Villa 14%Draw 22%Arsenal 65%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.41, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.

Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?

Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.8 scoreline for Aston Villa vs Arsenal.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.09 for Aston Villa and 1.75 for Arsenal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Aston Villa and Arsenal play?

Kick-off is Monday 31 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.